Liverpool Champions League qualification chances explained as top 4 race heats up

As the 2020-21 Premier League season nears its, the race for Champions League qualification is going down the wire. While Manchester City have already won the league title and their city rivals Manchester United are assured of a spot in next season's Champions League, the remaining two spots are still up for grabs. Leicester City and Chelsea presently occupy the third and fourth spot in the Premier League standings, however, 5th-placed Liverpool are hot on their heels. 

The Reds' 4-2 victory over Man United on Thursday was followed by an incredible 2-1 win over West Brom on Sunday. Jurgen Klopp's side have now given themselves a more than decent chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season, with their destiny still in their own hands. Here's a look at how Liverpool can qualify for the Champions League with two matchdays remaining, upcoming Liverpool fixtures and the current Premier League standings -

How can Liverpool qualify for the Champions League? Liverpool Champions League qualification chances explained

Following Liverpool keeper Alisson's stunning winning goal at West Brom, Jurgen Klopp's side have moved to within a point of the top four and their situation is certain to improve on Tuesday night when the two teams directly above them — Leicester and Chelsea — play each other and one or both of them will drop points. Chelsea have 64 points while Leicester are on 66 with both teams having two games remaining. 

Liverpool are currently on 63 points and their remaining two fixtures look inviting. Notably, the fact that Chelsea will lock horns with Leicester this week means it is not possible for both clubs to finish the season with more than 69 points, which is the maximum Liverpool can achieve if they win their two remaining games. 

However, even if Liverpool were to win both of their remaining games, then it would not automatically follow that they will finish in the top four, not guaranteeing the Liverpool Champions League qualification chances. One remaining scenario is that Chelsea could win both of their games to finish with 70 points while Leicester, after a defeat at Chelsea, would beat Tottenham on the final day to end the season on 69. In that case, if Liverpool win their two remaining games they would finish level on points with Leicester.

If that is what transpires, the fight for fourth would be decided on goal difference. At present, Liverpool's goal difference is +21 and Leicester's +21. Things could be about to get really complicated if Leicester lose 1-0 at Chelsea and beat Tottenham 3-0 while Liverpool win 2-1 at Burnley, beat Crystal Palace 3-2 and Chelsea win their final game at Aston Villa.

Then that would leave Chelsea third on 70 points in third and Leicester and Liverpool both 69 points, both on a goal difference of 23, both having scored 68 goals. However, Premier League rules for classification state that in this unlikely scenario, positions would be decided on the head-to-head record between the two teams. That record is close too as Liverpool won 3-0 at Anfield in November, Leicester won 3-1 at the King Power in February, so it would be Jurgen Klopp's side who get fourth while Leicester go into the Europa League.

If Leicester hadn't conceded in that home game, it would have gone to a play-off and it would have been the first time one has been used in the Premier League.

Liverpool UCL qualification explainer

The top four teams in the Premier League qualify for the group stages of the Champions League. Winning the Champions League or Europa League also guarantees a place in the group stages. A total of up to five English teams can qualify for the Champions League through these two methods. 

Liverpool fixtures for final two games 

Liverpool will make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley on Wednesday before closing out their campaign at Anfield against Crystal Palace. 

 

Image Credits - Liverpool Instagram