How can Chelsea still qualify for Europa League? Explaining the qualification scenarios for Blues

A month ago Chelsea looked like they were down and out from the race for participating in European club competitions next season, but a late upturn in results and their rivals faltering mean that Chelsea sit seventh in the Premier League table and have a shot to make the UEFA Europa League next season.

Chelsea hammered West Ham 5-0 over the weekend and have picked up 10 points in their last 5 games. Manchester United's embarrassing loss to Crystal Palace over the weekend meant that Mauricio Pochettino's side found themselves back in the European spots with three matchdays to go. 

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Can Chelsea qualify for Champions League? 

Unfortunately for Chelsea supporters, the team is mathematically out of the equation to qualify for the Champions League next season as they are 13 points adrift with just three games remaining. 

The only two teams that are still fighting for the Champions League spot this season are Aston Villa and Tottenham. 

Can Chelsea still qualify for Europa League?

The teams that finish 5th and 6th in the Premier League qualify for the Europa League and the team that finishes 7th qualifies for the Conference League. 

The equation for Chelsea is simple they will need to win all their remaining games to stand a chance of qualification. They are currently ahead of Manchester United in 8th place on goal difference and 2 points behind Newcastle for Europa league spots. 

The maximum points Chelsea and Manchester United can get to is 63, while the maximum points Newcastle can get to is 65. Hence, Chelsea will need Newcastle to drop points in their remaining games to jump up to the sixth spot and seal their Europa League qualification. But there's a catch. 

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Manchester United can deny Chelsea Europe even if they finish 7th

Even if Chelsea finish at the 6th spot in the Premier League table then they are not guaranteed Europa League football next season and if they finish at 7th spot there is still a possibility that they can still be out of Europe. But why?

It is because Manchester United will play in the FA Cup final against Manchester City. If United were to win vs City, then they would automatically seal a Europa League qualification for next season. 

If Manchester United finish the season in the 8th place and win FA Cup, them the team that finishes in the sixth spot will be demoted to play in the Conference League next season and the seventh placed team will be out of Europe. 

Hence Chelsea would at least want to finish at 6th place to not miss out on Europe. And if they finish at seventh they will hope Manchester United don't win the FA Cup. 

Luck of the Draw on Chelsea's side

Looking at the remaining Premier League fixtures for the three teams, Chelsea have the most favourable one as they will face Nottingham Forest, Brighton and Bournemouth in their last three games. 

But a huge boost to Chelsea will be that Manchester United and Newcastle will face each other on Wednesday 15th May, hence one team will definitely drop points while a draw would mean both teams losing pace. 

Remaining Fixtures

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest (A) - Saturday, May 11

Brighton & Hove Albion (A) - Wednesday, May 15

Bournemouth (H) - Sunday, May 19

Manchester United

Arsenal (H) – Sunday, May 12

Newcastle United (H) – Wednesday, May 15

Brighton (A) – Sunday, May 19

Newcastle United

Brighton (H) – Saturday, May 11

Man United (A) – Wednesday, May 15

Brentford (A) – Sunday, May 19