Sierra Negra's volcanic eruption predicted five months in advance using new system

In what could be a breakthrough in the volcanic forecast, researchers from the University of Illinois have developed a system that could predict the eruption of volcanos months earlier. According to a new study published in the journal Science Advances, the experts have detailed their system which successfully predicted an eruption in 2018. This eruption occurred on June 26 at the Sierra Negra Volcano of Galápagos in Ecuador five months after the warning given out by the system developed by the experts.

How was the prediction made?

In their study titled "Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador", the experts revealed that their prediction was based on a model powered by supercomputers. This model was based on high-performance computing data coupled with the data from the InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) satellite. Notably, their prediction had an error margin of one day as the model warned of an eruption between June 25 and July 5. 

"One of the great challenges in the field of volcanology is to develop quantitative models to investigate the processes that lead to volcanic eruptions and use these models to provide eruption forecasts", the experts wrote in their study. The paper further said that the prediction required the development of models capable of interpreting field observations and tracking the evolution of a magma system as well as observing volcanic unrest. The team also used simulations of activity beneath the volcano and ran them through the supercomputers after combining them with satellite images.

Geologist Patricia Gregg, who had set up the supercomputer model, revealed in a press statement that after presenting the conclusion at a scientific conference in March 2018, he got engaged in some other work and forgot about the model. It was when his colleague texted him to check the date again that he realised the success of his model. "We were floored", he said. 

How would prediction of volcano eruption help?

Having an early warning about volcano eruptions can save the local areas from disasters. The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano off the South Pacific island for example erupted and caused widescale destruction and caused heavy damage to the residents living around it. Predictions of volcanic eruptions could help administrations be prepared for the impending danger and would prove beneficial during relief efforts.