Study reveals devastating effects of increase in global warming by 2 degree Celcius

A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research revealed that an increase in global warming by one to two degrees Celsius by mid-century might put around 25% more people in danger from tropical cyclones. The study, published in Nature Climate Change journal, also found that emission reductions that keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius might safeguard almost 1.8 billion people from tropical storms until the end of the century.

The findings noted that population growth, apart from climate change, further increases the risk of tropical cyclones exposure, particularly in coastal areas of East Africa and the United States. The researchers looked at the combined effects of demographic development and climate change on those who are vulnerable to tropical storms, and discovered that the timing of the warming levels becomes crucial.  

"If we combine population growth with two degrees Celsius of global warming, we could see at least a 40% increase in people exposed to cyclones by 2050," stated Tobias Geiger, the lead author of the study.

He further went on to say that more people will be exposed to powerful cyclones due to climate change, as the world population is expected to peak around mid-century, putting the higher population in greater danger. The worldwide goal is to keep warming below two degrees Celsius, but when compared to unabated climate change, even two degrees Celsius of global warming could result in a very different outcome 50 years later, claimed the study.

It also noted that on a global scale, demographic models predict an unforced, regular decline in population in cyclone-prone locations until 2100. 

'The findings are applicable to a range of other climate extremes'

The findings further noted that delaying two degrees of warming until 2080 or 2100, in accordance with projected population decline, would result in a reduction of 'exposed population' in the Caribbean and East Asia, particularly in Japan, China, and the Korean peninsula.

Meanwhile, researchers claimed that their computer model can evaluate the global and country-level impacts of any given warming scenario, as well as the consequences for the number of people in danger from tropical storms. The findings are most likely applicable to a range of other climate extremes too, whose occurrence is solely determined by absolute warming rather than time, the study stated.

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