China may arm Russia for war in Ukraine to reshape global politics in its favour: Report

According to a report, if Russia were to succeed in Ukraine, it could potentially support China's objective of restructuring global politics and power, ultimately aiding in China's own ascension as a dominant economic and military force.

Against the backdrop of Beijing's aspirations to reshape global politics and enhance its superpower status, Michael A. Allen, a professor of Political Science at Boise State University, wrote in Asia Times that China might provide military support to Russia's war efforts.

During the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his counterpart Vladimir Putin held a meeting where they released a joint document outlining their desire to transform global politics. The statement, which was quite extensive, discussed their shared values and envisioned a world where the United States did not hold a significant leadership role, and where China and Russia had greater control and influence.

Studies have demonstrated that countries tend to get involved in conflicts when they believe that their interests are at stake and when they can make a difference. These factors could potentially motivate China to increase its involvement in Russia's conflict.

According to the report, China is considering sending military aid such as weapons, ammunition, and drones to Russia, which would directly support its ongoing war in Ukraine. The Biden administration recently declassified this information at the end of February 2023. The revelation of China's potential involvement in the conflict comes just weeks after the US Navy shot down a Chinese balloon that was allegedly being used for spying purposes, further exacerbating existing tensions between the two nations.

As Russia's war on Ukraine continues, it is facing mounting costs both in terms of financial resources and human lives. This has led Russia to seek help from various sources. To secure military support, Russia has attempted to reach out to allies such as North Korea and Belarus, according to Allen.

Russia will welcome Chinese support: Expert

Although China has not publicly announced its decision to provide military aid to Russia, Allen believes that Russia would welcome any assistance that China might offer. However, China's decision to intervene in the conflict will be carefully considered, taking into account the potential long-term benefits, risks, and the influence of western powers.

"But I think that China's choice in supporting Russia or not chiefly comes down to two considerations: how the Ukraine conflict will affect China's overall growth in world politics, and its interest in invading Taiwan," said Allen.

Despite the costs associated with the war, China is reportedly contemplating the possibility of providing military hardware to Russia for several reasons. According to the report, since Russia initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China has maintained an officially neutral stance, appearing to be "pro-Russia" in its position.

While China has not contributed directly to the conflict, it has avoided taking actions that would be perceived as taking sides, such as imposing economic sanctions on Russia.

China & Russia Foreign Ministers meet on G20 sidelines

In addition, on March 2, 2023, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his Russian counterpart held a meeting, during which China reiterated its neutral stance, emphasising that the two countries have maintained a "sound and steady" relationship, setting a new model for major-country relationships.

Another reason why China may want Russia to succeed in Ukraine is that a Russian victory could potentially provide external support for China in any future plans to overtake Taiwan or other territories. However, if Russia had succeeded in its initial plans to win the Ukraine war quickly, this could have encouraged China to consider a similar invasion of Taiwan, as reported by Asia Times.

In recent months, the Biden administration and other Western powers have warned China against getting involved in the conflict in Ukraine. In March 2023, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz publicly warned China of consequences if it chose to intervene.