Aging Shiite cleric plays powerful role in Iraq

When Iraq's top Shiite cleric underwent surgery for a fractured bone last month, it sent shivers around the country and beyond.

"May God heal Iraq", read a photo of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani that circulated online. Frantic supporters shared prayers.

Anti-government protesters hung up photos of the black-turbaned cleric with a long white beard and bushy eyebrows, declaring, "The hearts of the revolutionaries are with you".

Al-Sistani's well-wishers included officials from both Iran and the United States, the bitter rivals for influence in Iraq.

The incident put into focus the question: What will happen after al-Sistani, who turns 90 this year, is gone?

The question has gained added importance for an Iraq deeply embroiled in US-Iranian tensions and gripped by months of anti-government protests.

Al-Sistani's death would rob Iraq of a powerful voice whose sway among followers and positions against foreign intervention is believed to have curbed further Iranian influence.

He sought to restrain Iranian-backed Shiite militias accused of abuses and moderate the government, repeatedly stating that the Iraqi people are the source of authority.

Iran, analysts say, will likely try to exploit the vacuum to expand its influence among Iraq's Shiites.

Iran's post-al-Sistani ambitions may be complicated by Iraq's wave of protests since October, which showed a vein of resentment among Shiites to Tehran's power.

Many Iraqis have also been angered at how US and Iranian hostilities have played out on their soil, including last month's US drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Al-Sistani has been a counterweight to Iran, not only in politics.

He represents a school of thought in Shiism opposed to direct rule by clerics, the system in place in Iran, where supreme leader  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final word in all matters.

Al-Sistani and Khamenei both hold the rank of "marja taqlid" - or "object of emulation", a figure that pious Shiites revere as a spiritual guide.

But the majority of Iraq's Shiites follow al-Sistani, as do many in Iran and around the world.

Fending off Iran is a concern for many in the Najaf Hawza, the esteemed institution of Shiite religious learning from which al-Sistani's successor will emerge.

Al-Sistani rarely appears in public and doesn't deliver sermons - his messages are put out by intermediaries.

He has been recovering from his surgery and this month has resumed receiving visitors at his modest home near Najaf's gold-domed Imam Ali Shrine.

Despite the modest trappings, al-Sistani is a larger-than-life figure to whom millions of Shiites look for guidance on even the smallest questions of life.

Under his leadership, the Hawza's ranks swelled after dwindling under the repressive rule of Saddam Hussein.

Would-be Shiite clerics from around the world flock to the Hawza, learning from the faith's most respected scholars, whose influence in turn resonates around the Shiite community.

Religious classes are dispersed among mosques or buildings in the run-down alleys of Najaf's Old City.

The Hawza prides itself on in its independence, governed by centuries-old traditions and unwritten rules.

Status is earned by years of building up a reputation for religious knowledge and respect among students and peers.

The system for al-Sistani's succession is complex and informal: No one is "appointed" and there won't be an immediate declaration of a successor.

It can take months or even years until one cleric garners enough followers and influence to gain consensus as the new leading "object of emulation".

A group of the Hawza's eminent clerics known as "Ahl al-Khibra" or "the people of expertise", guide the process, steering the faithful toward a figure based on piety and superiority of knowledge.

The most likely contenders, if they outlive al-Sistani, are two grand ayatollahs - Afghan-born Mohammed Ishaq al-Fayadh, who is 89 or 90, and Najaf-born Mohammed Saeed al-Hakim, who is in his 80s.

Given their advanced age, observers have floated possible candidates from the younger generation.

Al-Sistani's influential son, Mohamed Reda, could play a role in shaping the succession if he threw his weight behind a candidate who he thinks will follow in his father's footsteps, said Baghdad-based analyst Sajad Jiyad.

Still, some question if a figure as broadly accepted as al-Sistani will emerge or how long that can take.

"It's not easy to choose or predict who the highest (religious) authority will be, so I don't think it will be possible for Iran or any other country to have a direct say in it", said Jiyad.

The senior clerics who spoke to the AP - and who belong to the Ahl al-Khibra - were confident the Hawza's cloistered ways and deeply entrenched traditions were difficult for Iran to penetrate and that no successor can veer far from al-Sistani's path.

Iran has tried.

It was believed to have been trying to build a following in Najaf for an Iranian cleric close to its supreme leader as a potential successor of al-Sistani.

But the cleric, Grand Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, died in 2018.

Even as he shunned a direct rule by clerics, al-Sistani weighed in actively throughout Iraq's turbulent times, helping shape the rise in power of the country's Shiite majority.

His positions forced Iraq's post-Saddam American administrators to significantly revise their transition plans.

In 2004, it took his return from London, where he was treated for a heart condition, to end fighting in Najaf between a Shiite militia and U.S. and Iraqi forces.

Still, his influence had limits.

He spoke out against reprisals against Sunnis during times of sectarian bloodshed in the mid-2000s but that didn't stop the vicious killings.

In 2014, thousands heeded his calls for Iraqis to take up arms against the onslaught of the Sunni Islamic State group.

That helped defeat the militants; but it also filled the ranks of Iranian-backed Shiite militias accused of abuses against Sunnis, which have become a significant political force.

Anger at Iran's influence has helped fuel the current protest movement, the largest seen in Iraq.

Protesters complain of corruption by politicians and many reject both Iranian and American interference.

Al-Sistani has voiced support for the demands of peaceful protesters and denounced the crackdown against them.

He has also spoken out against all foreign intervention and called for an Iraq "that is ruled by its children with no role for outsiders in its decisions".

Clerics in Najaf said the word "outsiders" was seen as a harsh message to Iran.