EXPLAINED: Avian influenza, theories around H5N1 bird flu virus, its pandemic potential

As the world is grappled with the fading consquences of the deadly Covid-19 pendemic, news of avian influennza cases in humans is surfacing around the globe, with particular concern over the deadly H5N1 variant. Taking a look at the data around the H5N1 bird flu variant, highlighting its origin while addressing whether it has the potential to become the next viral pandemic. 

What is Avian influenza & H5N1?

Avian influenza, also known as bird flu, is a highly infectious viral disease that primarily affects birds, but can also be transmitted to humans. The virus responsible for bird flu is of the type A influenza virus, and there are multiple strains of the virus, including H5N1.

Sure, H5N1 is a highly pathogenic strain of the avian influenza virus that was first identified in birds in Asia in the late 1990s. Since then, it has spread to other parts of the world, including Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the H5N1 strain of avian influenza virus is of significant concern due to its high pathogenicity in birds and its potential to cause severe illness and death in humans.

The first cases of human infection with H5N1 were reported in 1997 in Hong Kong, and since then, the virus has continued to spread to other parts of the world. As of September 2021, a total of 861 human cases of H5N1 have been reported to the WHO, with a mortality rate of approximately 53%.

While the virus primarily affects birds, human cases of H5N1 have been linked to direct or indirect contact with infected birds or contaminated environments. The WHO reports that the risk of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is low, but it is possible in some situations, such as close and prolonged contact with an infected person.

How is the virus transmitted?

Avian influenza can be transmitted to humans through direct contact with infected birds, their saliva, or faeces. The virus can also be transmitted indirectly, such as through contact with contaminated surfaces or objects. Human-to-human transmission of avian influenza is rare, but it can occur in situations where there is close contact between infected individuals.

What are the symptoms of the virus?

The symptoms of avian influenza in humans can range from mild to severe, and can include fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches. In severe cases, avian influenza can cause pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which can be fatal.

The mortality rate for H5N1 in humans is high, with approximately 60% of reported cases resulting in death.

Are there any known treatments?

Early detection and treatment with antiviral drugs can help to reduce the severity of symptoms and prevent complications, but there is no specific antiviral treatment for H5N1. Some antiviral drugs can be used to reduce the severity of symptoms and to prevent complications. Vaccines for some strains of avian influenza are available, but their effectiveness can vary.

Early detection and treatment with antiviral drugs can help to reduce the severity of symptoms and prevent complications. Vaccines for H5N1 have been developed, but their effectiveness is limited and they are not widely available.

Are we looking at another pandemic?

H5N1 is of particular concern because it has a high mortality rate in humans, with more than half of reported cases resulting in death. While there have been outbreaks of H5N1 in humans, it has not yet caused a global pandemic. The potential for H5N1 or another strain of avian influenza to cause a global pandemic is a concern for public health officials, as the virus has the ability to mutate and adapt to new hosts, including humans. However, so far, the virus has not acquired the ability to spread efficiently between humans, which has limited its pandemic potential.

To prevent the spread of H5N1, the WHO recommends measures such as monitoring and reporting of outbreaks in animals and humans, culling infected birds, promoting public awareness and hygiene practices, and maintaining adequate supplies of antiviral drugs and vaccines. These measures have been successful in controlling outbreaks of H5N1 in some areas, but the virus remains a threat to both animal and human health.