Explained: Why Russia's ISS withdrawal causes stir; how it could affect US, space research

Russia's space agency ROSCOSMOS on July 27, Wednesday, announced the withdrawal from International Space Station (ISS) by 2024 and instead construct its own orbital outpost as tensions with the United States mounted over the ongoing military operation in Ukraine.

“Of course, we will fulfil all our obligations to our partners, but the decision to leave this station after 2024 has been made,” Roscosmos Director General Yury Borisov confirmed to Russian President Vladimir Putin according to the press release issued by Kremlin.

As Russia looks to build its own Russian Orbital Station (ROSS), and abandoned the space cooperation with US, experts now believe that Moscow's recent step will prove to be a setback for space research, and will also lead to the militarisation of space. On July 15, Russia and NASA had also reached a deal to launch the US astronauts on Russian Soyuz spacecraft, and cosmonauts aboard SpaceX Crew Dragon capsules in the month of September.

Cosmonauts were supposed to be launched on US spacecrafts CrewDragon and two American astronauts were supposed to be launched on Russian spacecrafts Soyuz. Credit: Twitter/@TLPN_Official

Russia's plan to abandon NASA to be implemented 'after 2024'

Yuri Borisov, the head of the Russia's space agency ROSCOSMOS, who replaced former Director General Dmitri Rogozin, had confirmed in a statement that the decision to abandon the US space partnership has been finalised and is not subject to change. He also iterated that the plan will be implemented "after 2024".

In context of Russia's space withdrawal, Ned Price, a State Department spokesman said, "It's an unfortunate development given the critical scientific work performed at the ISS. United States and Russia have cooperated on space exploration ... over the course of decades."

NASA administrator Bill Nelson meanwhile iterated that NASA will continue the safe operation of the International Space Station through 2030, but also stressed the importance of contributions of the partner nations for building the future capabilities to ensure the "major presence in low-Earth orbit".

ROSCOSMOS Director General, Rogozin, however, had been threatening to pull out of the space station cooperation shortly after Russia launched an all out invasion of Ukraine but it wasn't made official until Kremlin isused an official communique. 

John Logsdon, a historian and space policy analyst after the announcement expressed concerns, telling the American broadcaster CBS that "you don't just do those things casually". NASA and Russia's space coperation traces back to nearly 24 years and Moscow's astronaut-cosmonaut crews has been staffed onboard since October 2000. 

Russia's participation on the ISS has been as integral for the US-led space agency as other partners like European Space Agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the Canadian Space Agency. NASA, on multiple occassions, had asserted that space alliance with Russia is neccessary and had also claimed that it was "going to stay".

But now as the rift between Moscow and Washington intensifies, and Moscow walks out of future projects with NASA, the fate of research in the space domain is likely to suffer a hit. Russia's drastic measure can be attributed to Biden administration's rampant sanctions that Moscow labels was intended to undermine Russia's "space program".

European Space Agency's astronaut Alexander Gerst, left, Russian cosmonaut Maxim Suraev, center, and NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman, members of the next mission to the International Space Station, embrace during a news conference in Russian leased Baikonur cosmodrome, Kazakhstan. Credit: Associated Press

ESA French astronaut Thomas Pesquet, left, Russian cosmonaut Oleg Novitsky, center, and U.S. astronaut Peggy Annette Whitson. Credit: Associated Press

ISS' two halves or major modules are currently being handled by Russia and the latter withdrawing from the programme will imply that ISS may need to be decommissioned. But Russia insists that it is not in breach of any space agreement with NASA. Six of the 17 modules of the ISS that comprise of the main engine system are managed by Moscow's cosmonauts.

These engines are integral for the ISS to remain in the orbit as it wards off the space debris, on which the stability of the orbital relies. While it remains unclear if Moscow will detach Russian modules from the rest of the ISS, such a move would prove to be a challenge for NASA.