Rich nations will have 1.2 billion surplus COVID vaccine doses by end of 2021: Analysis

Wealthier nations have hoarded at least 500 million doses from their vaccine stock just this month, and the supply to the low-income countries suffers retrenchment due to COVID-19 third ‘booster shots’. This stock would surpass one billion by the end of 2021, a new analysis by the firm Airfinity has found. At least 360 million COVID-19 vaccine shots have not been earmarked for donations, the new research by data analytics firm revealed in a report on Sunday, 5 September 2021. The firm’s analysis considered the availability of supply of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S, UK, EU, Canada, and Japan. It then predicted the stock going forward and the number of vaccines that could be available to ship to the poor countries. 

“By the end of the year, nearly 1.06 billion of COVID-19 vaccines will not have been earmarked for donations,” the report on Sunday stated. It goes on to add, that the Western countries “continue their vaccination programmes for everyone above 12 years old and also proceed with booster shots for their entire population.” 

While the global vaccine production has scaled up overall, last month production hit a total of 6 billion doses produced to date, the firm said in a press release. Currently, the COVID-19 manufacturers produce nearly 1.5 billion doses per month, and a total of 11.3 billion doses are required to vaccinate the world’s population. Further, in its forecast about the output reach to the poor nations, Airfinity found that less than 15 per cent of what has been pledged thus far has been delivered. “G7 countries and the EU have pledged over 1 billion doses,” the firm reminded, but the countries have been unable to fulfil their commitments as has been found by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA). 

“The world has reached a tipping point when it comes to vaccine availability and production,” Airfinity’s co-founder and CEO Rasmus Bech Hansen said. “For large Western countries the challenge is no longer supply, but demand,” he added. 

Furthermore, Hansen stressed that the global supply chain is successfully increasing production, but the firm’s detailed analysis report shows that high-income countries have plenty of vaccines coming and this, in fact, should reduce the need for stockpiling. “How these stocks are distributed, where they go, and whether they are re-sold or donated is ultimately a political decision. With these numbers, I believe the world has a better basis for making these critical allocation decisions and avoiding wasted doses,” he said. 

WHO calls for ‘moratorium’ on third booster shot

Calling out at the “shocking inequities in access to COVID-19 vaccines,” the World Health Organisation [WHO] Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus earlier last week opposed “widespread use of boosters” for healthy people for now, as he stressed the need to vaccinate the vulnerable population in the poorer countries. Speaking at a press conference in Berlin in person for the Inauguration of the WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence, Tedros said that the COVID-19 cases and fatalities reported to WHO “declined for the first time” in more than two months but “it doesn’t mean much.” 

He then asserted that there were many financially backward nations across the world still witnessing steep increases in cases and deaths, particularly due to the lack of vaccines. “More than 5 billion vaccines have now been administered globally, and almost 75 per cent of them have been in just 10 countries,” WHO chief Tedros reminded. “In low-income countries, most of which are in Africa, less than 2 per cent of adults are fully vaccinated, compared with almost 50 per cent in high‑income countries,” he added.