Ukraine projects large scale Russian offensive in January, says 'task is to avert it'

The Russian Federation has amassed more than 94,000 troops at its border with Ukraine, said minister Oleksii Reznikov, adding that there is a probability of a “large scale escalation” in January. The situation on the highly volatile border between the two erstwhile soviet states has escalated since January after the number of Russian troops scaled up. Last week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reckoned that the history of the 2014 Crimean invasion could be repeated. 

Speaking at the Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) on Friday, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii said that the number of Russian troops near Ukraine and in Crimea is roughly around 94,300. Citing the country’s intelligence services, he said that he highlighted that an escalation from Russia was probable but “not certain”. Furthermore, he said that Kyiv’s only job is to avert any possible invasion from the Russians. 

“Our intelligence service analyzes all scenarios, including the worst ones. It notes that a probability of a large-scale escalation on the part of Russia exists. The most probable time when (Russia) will be ready for the escalation is the end of January,” Reznikov was quoted as saying by ANI. 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also laid bare the possibility of a Russian invasion, citing Ukrainian intelligence services. Last week, NATO  Chief Jens Stoltenberg cautioned the international community against Moscow’s “unclear intentions.” “There is no certainty, no clarity about exactly what are the Russian intentions, and they may evolve and change,” the NATO chief said. To back his stance, he highlighted the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and said, “They’ve done it before." 

What is happening on the border?

Russia’s 41st army has been stationed in Yelnya, a town 260 kilometres north of the Ukrainian border. Moreover, recent satellite imagery reveals increased military activity from Russia's 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, according to a defence ministry’s statement. The Kremlin blamed the United States joint military exercises in the Black Sea behind Russia’s provocation. “What we see is a significant, large Russian military build-up. We see an unusual concentration of troops. And we know that Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine,” Stoltenberg had earlier said at a conference. 

(Image: AP)