Russia-Ukraine standoff: What does Putin's recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean?

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to escalate with Moscow amassing nearly 1,90,000 troops along the Ukraine-Russia border, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, February 21, aggravated tensions by recognising the independence of two breakaway regions of Ukraine-- Donetsk and Luhansk.

Putin's move has been slammed by the international community, including the US, UK, European Union (EU), and the United Nations, for allegedly breaching international agreements that Moscow has committed to, including the Minsk Agreement. Now, as the West remains incredibly alarmed of potential Russian invasion more than ever, it is pertinent to understand the implications for a wider crisis that follows Russia's unilateral recognition of LPR (Luhansk People's Republic) and DPR (Donetsk People's Republic).

What are LPR and DPR?

Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) collectively form the Donbass. The separatist-controlled large swaths of land became the epicentre of conflict in 2014 when it announced itself self-proclaimed republics, but was not recognised by the international community until Russia's acknowledgement on 21 February 2022.

The pro-Russian affiliates have always been reportedly backed by the Kremlin supplying covert arms and armaments against the government of Ukraine. Since 2014, at least 13,200 people have been killed in fighting in sporadic skirmishes in the region. Meanwhile, despite credible evidence, Russia has continued to deny its support to the separatists in Donbass.

What does the Russian recognition of LPR and DPR mean?

For a long time, Russia had not regarded Donbass as a part of Ukraine, A lack of formal recognition did not allow Moscow to enter into military deals or force deployment to support LPR and DPR fight the Ukrainian army. But a formal recognition of the self-proclaimed independence of the Donbass republics will now pave way for Moscow to "send troops," arguing that any outside intervention is a hindrance in bilateral relations between two allies.

(Image: CSIS)

To note, the resolution to recognise the breakaway provinces of Ukraine was proposed by Russia's lower house State Duma on February 15. The lawmakers forwarded the proposal to President Putin who signed the decree on February 21, steadfastly exacerbating tensions with the West. "This recognition would be a violation of Minsk Agreement," High Representative of EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Joseph Borrell had said earlier.

Why are Ukraine and West condemning Putin's move?

Notably, Russia has been pushing Ukraine to acknowledge the independence of the Donbass republics in adherence to Minsk Agreement, which envisions special status for the separatist-controlled regions in a bid to provide them more autonomy, RFA reported. However, Kyiv has over time rejected the Kremlin's appeal saying that it is Russia's "veiled attempt" to federalise Ukraine and in the long-run annex it. However, Russia has maintained that it does not meddle with Ukraine's domestic affairs, a stance that deflects from the overwhelming evidence against it.

On Tuesday, hours after Russia formally identified the breakaway Ukrainian regions, Kyiv and its Western allies called for an emergency UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting. In a letter to the UNSC, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba accused Russia of "undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Kyiv."

Addressing the meeting, US permanent representative Linda Thomas-Greenfield also said that Russia "tore Minsk Agreement to shreds (and) violated basic principles of international law." In addition, the UK, France, Baltic States of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia also slammed Moscow for its move.

Role of Minsk peace process in the melee

Russian recognition of LPR and DPR effectively terminates the 2015 Minsk Agreement, that was signed between Moscow, Kyiv, Organisation for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) and Russia-backed separatist leaders in September 2014. The 12-point ceasefire deal underscored peace and stability in the region, ordered the withdrawal of heavy weapon and prisoner exchanges by Moscow-supported rebels. The deal, although still un-implemented, has been referred to as the best bid to dilute the Moscow-Kyiv standoff.

On the downside, Russia's unilateral recognition has already forced the Western nations to implement "swift and firm" preliminary financial sanctions while mulling for wider crippling measures. However, Moscow today at the UNSC meeting emphasised that it is ready for "diplomatic talks." It is now to see if the sweeping sanctions help dismantle Russia's aggressive approach towards Ukraine. 

(Image: AP)