Ukraine's birth rate is drastically falling. Is the Russian invasion to blame?

Ukraine has experienced a steep drop of 28% in its natality since Russia launched its invasion last February, with 38,324 lesser infants born in the country within the first six months of this year compared to 2021, new data presented by OpenDataBot has revealed.

As per the Dnipro-based data analytics company, the plunge from 2021 to 2023 is the most significant one that the country has experienced since its independence in 1991. While Ukraine has witnessed a 7% per year decline in its birth rate since 2015, the ongoing war has aggravated the issue.

Has Ukraine's birth rate always been low? 

The nation experienced a similar situation in 2015, when Crimea fell into the hands of Russia. This year, however, an average of 16,000 babies were born every month, a much lower number than the 23,000 infants that were birthed monthly before the invasion began. 

The United Nations (UN) already rang alarm bells over Ukraine's birth rate crisis, warning that the country's population could fall by 50% by 2050. “Ukraine had one of the lowest birthrates on the planet. And then a war broke out,” Brienna Perelli-Harris, a professor of demography at the University of Southampton who studies fertility rates in Ukraine, told NPR earlier this year. 

What's the reason behind Ukraine's dwindling population

A doctor who works at a maternity hospital in Kyiv told the outlet that people would naturally help increase the population once they feel safe in their homeland, free from the shackles of Russia. “When Ukrainians feel and see more stability; when they feel more protection, they will have the desire to have more children," the anonymous medical practitioner said. 

For Ukraine, a decline in the overall population is a result of less number of births and fleeing civilians. According to data from the United Nations high commissioner for Refugees, an estimated 6 million refugees have fled the war-hit nation since February 2022. 

The ongoing war is particularly hard on expecting mothers in Ukraine, who have witnessed devastation and ruthless attacks all around. One of the most heart-wrenching images of the war displays Mariana Vishegirskaya, a pregnant woman who was wounded after Russia bombarded a maternity hospital in Mariupol last year.