The List Is Long: Suspects in the Death of Iran’s President Raisi

New Delhi: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister and others were found dead Monday hours after their helicopter crashed in a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest, state media reported. Raisi was 63. The crash comes as the Middle East remains unsettled by the Israel-Hamas war, during which Raisi under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched an unprecedented drone-and-missile attack on Israel just last month. Under Raisi, Iran enriched uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels, further escalating tensions with the West as Tehran also supplied bomb-carrying drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine and armed militia groups across the region. 

Among the dead was Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, 60. The helicopter also carried the governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan province, other officials and bodyguards, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.  

Although the immediate cause of the crash remains unclear, any official finding will likely be open to interpretation. The fireworks that lit up the Tehran sky on Sunday night exemplify this ambiguity: were they celebrating the eve of the holiday marking the birth of Reza, the 8th Imam? Or were they happy with the death of Raisi, the hardline President?

Raisi was not only the President of Iran but also a contender to succeed the ageing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Holding either position was extremely risky, similar to flying within Iran, where aviation safety has been compromised by years of sanctions and inconsistent maintenance. These issues have claimed nearly as many senior Iranian officials' lives as the ongoing shadow war with Israel, a conflict that also loomed over Raisi's reported demise.  

Ebrahim Raisi's Death:  List of Potential Suspects  

The crash happened two months after Iran's extensive missile and drone assault on Israel, in response to an Israeli airstrike that took the lives of two senior Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. Israel's reaction to this rare direct attack on its soil was notably subdued, focusing on a symbolic target: an anti-aircraft battery safeguarding a nuclear facility.

For those inclined to think the crash was orchestrated by Tel Aviv, the location of the incident invites speculation. Raisi's helicopter crashed in a mountainous forest near the border with Azerbaijan, one of Iran's less amicable neighbors. Azerbaijan's ties with Israel and its history of cooperation with Mossad add fuel to such theories.

However, weather conditions also raised suspicions. Iranian state reports mentioned that efforts to locate the crash site were hindered by fog, strong winds, and heavy rain. They even released footage showing rescue crews hurriedly navigating through a thick mist.

Lastly, there's the internal politics of the Islamic Republic, known for its brutality even under normal circumstances. 

Raisi, aged 63, flourished in a culture steeped in conspiracy. His political faction, the Combatant Clergy Association, signals his role within Iran's authoritarian theocratic regime, which supplanted the monarchy in 1979. Rising through the ranks, Raisi established himself as an enforcer, serving as a prosecutor across various provinces and showcasing his steadfast adherence to hardline policies. In the late 1980s, he became a member of a "death committee" accused by human rights organizations of orchestrating the extrajudicial execution of thousands of political prisoners.

The executions caused a disruption in the intended succession following Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's leadership of the 1979 Revolution. After his disillusioned protege voiced dissent, refusing to follow him into what he considered moral degradation, the mantle of leadership transitioned to Khamenei, who swiftly rose to the rank of Ayatollah. Over the ensuing years, Raisi steadily climbed the ranks, ultimately taking charge of the judiciary, answerable directly to the Supreme Leader.

All You Need to Know About Ebrahim Raisi

Raisi, 63, previously ran Iran’s judiciary. He ran unsuccessfully for president in 2017 against Hassan Rouhani, the relatively moderate cleric who as president reached Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

In 2021, Raisi ran again in an election that saw all of his potentially prominent opponents barred for running under Iran’s vetting system. He swept nearly 62% of the 28.9 million votes, the lowest turnout by percentage in the Islamic Republic’s history. Millions stayed home and others voided ballots.

Raisi was defiant when asked at a news conference after his election about the 1988 executions, which saw sham retrials of political prisoners, militants and others that would become known as “death commissions” at the end of the bloody Iran-Iraq war.  

Raisi also supported attacking Israel in a massive assault in April that saw over 300 drones and missiles fired at the country in response for a suspected Israeli attack that killed Iranian generals at the country’s embassy compound in Damascus, Syria — itself a widening of a yearslong shadow war between the two countries.

He also supported the country’s security services as they cracked down on all dissent, including in the aftermath of the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini and the nationwide protests that followed.