UK Set to Hike Defence Spending to 3.5 Percent of GDP Under NATO Pressure, Says Report

Britain is expected to agree to a significant increase in defence spending, raising it to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. The expected move comes ahead of this month’s NATO summit in The Hague, where a new defence spending target is being pushed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The proposal is widely seen as an effort to keep U.S. President Donald Trump engaged in the alliance.

A senior UK defence source cited in a Guardian report said that the country would “without a doubt” support the proposal, which would mean spending roughly £30 billion more than the Labour government’s current defence plans. The UK has already committed to increasing defence spending from the current 2.33% of GDP to 2.5% by 2027, and eventually to 3% within the next parliamentary term.

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However, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has so far avoided committing to a timeline for reaching that 3% target. At the launch of the UK’s strategic defence review on Monday, he declined to set a fixed date, stating in a BBC interview that he would not indulge in “performative fantasy politics”.

Later the same day, while visiting the BAE shipyard in Govan, Glasgow, Starmer gave a hint of flexibility. Speaking to Sky News, he said: “There are discussions about what the contribution should be going into the NATO conference in two or three weeks’ time,” suggesting openness to NATO’s evolving expectations.

The upcoming NATO summit will be the first of Trump’s second term, and Secretary General Rutte has proposed that allies agree to a total defence spending goal of 5% of GDP. This would be divided into 3.5% for conventional military spending and 1.5% for cyber, intelligence, and related infrastructure. “I assume that in The Hague we will agree on a high defence spend target of in total 5%,” Rutte said last week. “It will be considerably north of 3% when it comes to the hard spending.”

Uncertainty remains over how 3.5 percent will be calculated 

Insiders said Starmer is expected to discuss the new target during a key meeting this week, and many believe it would be nearly impossible for the UK to reject the proposal after announcing a “NATO-first” defence strategy.

However, debates remain over how the 3.5% target would be calculated. Some elements, such as intelligence spending, are counted by the UK Treasury as NATO-related, but may not be included under Rutte’s framework—potentially complicating last-minute negotiations.