AP-NORC Poll: Virus woes push mail voting approval

Americans' support for mail-in voting has jumped amid concerns about the safety of polling places during the coronavirus pandemic, but a wide partisan divide suggests President Donald Trump's public campaign against vote by mail may be resonating with his Republican backers.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds Democrats are now much more likely than Republicans to support their state conducting elections exclusively by mail, 47% to 29%.

All states conduct elections differently, and only five states automatically mail ballots to every voter. But in response to the virus, some states — including Ohio on Tuesday — have shifted their primaries to virtually all-mail elections.

The effects of the pandemic were seen firsthand by the Chairman of the Lucas County Republican Party. Mark Wagoner Junior's father, Mark Wagoner Senior, was the first person to pass away from COVID-19 in Ohio.

Wagoner told The Associated Press that the Ohio primary was scheduled to go ahead on March 17th, until the night before when the governor announced a delay until April 28.

University of Cincinnati Professor David Niven says that research on states conducting postal ballots found "it doesn't dramatically affect either party. "

The Republican-controlled Wisconsin legislature rebuffed a last-minute request to hold that state's April 7 primary and state court election by mail. Democrats won a contested Supreme Court race, but not before shuttered polling locations left voters in long lines at polling places in Green Bay and Milwaukee, where only five of 183 stations were open.

President Trump's campaign against mail voting is having an effect, as a new poll finds a growing partisan split over the practice — one that could potentially hurt his party in November.

In early April, answering a reporter question on whether every state in the country should be prepared for mail-in voting, Trump said: "No, because I think a lot of people cheat with mail in voting."

The increased partisanship in the debate over how America votes comes just as that question has been thrust into the forefront of American politics. As health officials warn about the risk of spreading the coronavirus at polling places, some in the Republican Party have tried to limit the expansion of mail voting, with Trump and others openly fretting that it may enable too many people to cast their ballots for the GOP to win in November.

Former head of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele says the 2020 presidential election will not only decide what party is in power but also what kind of country Americans want to live in.

"I think this election puts a lot on the table for us as citizens, and it starts with the question, will I be able to vote," Steele said.

In 2018, about half as many Democrats were in favor of their state conducting elections exclusively by mail, and there was little difference in the views of Democrats and Republicans on the question.

The survey also found a partisan divide on support for no-excuse absentee voting, the system in place in most states, including almost all the top presidential battlegrounds, even as a majority of Americans say they favor that practice.

The poll also shows 60% of Americans support allowing people to vote via absentee ballot without requiring them to give a reason if the outbreak is still happening. That includes 73% percent of Democrats and 46% of Republicans. Some 40% of Republicans are opposed.

The partisan differences could have a strong impact across the presidential battleground states. Five of the top seven swing states — Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — have divided government, and skirmishes over voting have already broken out in several. In some, there are signs that Democratic areas are moving faster than GOP ones to embrace mail voting.

Republican Wagoner, from Ohio, expects there to "be in-person voting in November," but is signaling flexibility, "we have certainly adapted our skill set."

Debates over the primaries may only be a preview of the partisan battles ahead if the virus is still forcing stay-at-home orders and social distancing in November.

Politicians and political analysts alike are warning states to prepare for a very different election in November  2020.

"We could be looking at instead of 20% of our voting population turning out, requesting an absentee ballot and then processing those ballots, 80% of our electorate requesting an absentee ballot or even 100%, where we don't know what November 3rd will look like in terms of coronavirus, if we all of a sudden start a new trend, as some some doctors and scientists are predicting, because we're back in the cold and flu season."

If the coronavirus continues to make in-person voting potentially risky, 60% of Democrats would support holding elections entirely by mail, as opposed to 37% of Republicans, according to an AP-NORC poll. Overall, 48% of Americans would support an all-mail election during an outbreak, compared to 31% opposed.

The AP-NORC poll of 1,057 adults was conducted April 16-20 using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points.