US intel unveils Russia's Ukraine invasion plan; estimates involvement of 175,000 troops

The Joe Biden administration's rising concern about a Russian invasion of Ukraine is based, in part, on US intelligence that Moscow is planning a military attack involving an estimated 175,000 troops as early as next year, the Washington Post reported on December 3. Some of the intelligence findings are included in an unclassified US intelligence paper, which includes the positioning of what authorities believe would eventually be 100 battalion tactical units, as well as heavy armour, artillery, and other equipment.

The objectives of Russian President Vladimir Putin remain unknown, according to US officials, and intelligence does not indicate that he has decided to carry out the alleged war plan, according to NYT. However, the intelligence depicts a Russian military machine leaping into action and preparing for an invasion against which experts believe Ukraine's military has little chance.

According to a Biden administration official who spoke to Washington Post on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, roughly half of the Russian forces that would be used in an invasion are already near Ukraine's border, and Moscow is moving quickly to build up a large force of contract military reservists. An invasion of Ukraine by Russia would cause a significant national security problem for Europe and the Biden administration, which has professed an ironclad commitment to Ukraine's boundaries and independence.

Biden, Putin to meet virtually to discuss Ukrainian concern

The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, confirmed on Saturday that US President Biden and his Russian counterpart would arrange a secure video conference on Tuesday. Wahington Post reported Biden as saying that the meeting "will underscore US concerns with Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine and reaffirm the United States’ support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine." During the call with Biden, Putin will seek binding guarantees prohibiting NATO expansion into Ukraine, according to the Kremlin, while Ukraine's defence minister has warned that Russia may invade his country next month, AP reported. 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov warned MPs on Friday that the number of Russian forces near Ukraine and in Russian-annexed Crimea is believed to be 94,300, threatening a large-scale escalation in January. The intelligence dossier includes satellite photographs showing a buildup of Russian troops and equipment along Ukraine's eastern border, and it claims that Russian plans include moving forces to and from the border to conceal objectives and create doubt.

Concerns about Putin's intentions have been heightened by what US officials describe as a surge in Russian media disinformation portraying NATO and Ukraine as dangers to Russia, potentially as a pretext for a Russian escalation. According to the administration source, Russian officials have also proposed information operations within Ukraine that depict Ukrainian leaders as Western puppets acting against their country's interests, CNN reported.

(With inputs from agencies)

Image: AP