President Biden and his close advisers maintain a steadfast belief that the current polls, which indicate a lag in popularity compared to his 2020 performance, do not accurately reflect his true support among voters. Despite public concerns and internal pressures within the Democratic party, Biden remains convinced that his campaign is gaining momentum against former President Donald Trump.

In both public addresses and private conversations, Biden has asserted his confidence in his campaign's trajectory, dismissing the negative polling data as inaccurate. He recently told donors during a West Coast visit, "While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump."

Biden blames polling methodology 

Challenged about his declining poll numbers in a rare CNN interview, Biden criticized polling methodology, stating, "The polling data has been wrong all along. How many — you guys do a poll at CNN. How many folks you have to call to get one response?"

A look at what the polls say

Recent polls in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin do paint a challenging picture for Biden. Surveys conducted by The New York Times/Sienna and Bloomberg News indicate Trump leading in several of these critical states among registered voters.

Despite these discouraging figures, Biden finds solace in select polls that show him either ahead or within the margin of error. He frequently cites a PBS/Marist poll where he is shown to be in the lead.

Biden's familiarity with polling data is evident as he delves into the specifics, highlighting his strength among likely voters rather than registered voters. "We run strongest among likely voters in the polling data," he informed donors.

Biden's confidence in the face of unfavourable polls is not new; he and his team have consistently felt underestimated by both the Washington establishment and public surveys. They draw parallels to Biden's unexpected primary victory in 2020, highlighting his appeal to voters when it truly matters.

What is the Biden campaign saying?

Responding to skepticism about the campaign's approach, Biden's spokesperson, Kevin Munoz, reiterated their focus on outreach and a winning agenda. “This election will be close like all presidential races are. What matters is which candidate has a popular and winning agenda, and which candidate and their campaign are putting in the work to reach the voters who will decide this election. That candidate is Joe Biden” Munoz said, as per a report from Axios.

While some Democrats express concerns that the Biden team may be in denial about the polling, Biden and his advisers remain resolute in their belief that when voters are faced with a choice in November, they will choose to not re-elect Trump. Ultimately, it will be the voters who determine the accuracy of these convictions.