'You Don’t Want it Too Hot or Too Good': Jaishankar Advocates a 'Goldilocks Scenario' to Navigate US-China Rivalry

New Delhi: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has advocated a “Goldilocks scenario” in global power dynamics, arguing that emerging and middle powers must prioritise self-reliance, strategic hedging and pragmatic partnerships to navigate intensifying US-China competition.

Speaking at the Munich Leaders Meeting, Jaishankar described a fractured international order shaped by two dominant forces: a deliberate shift in Washington’s approach and Beijing’s expanding influence.

“The landscape today is primarily marked by a radical repositioning of the United States... a posture of choice [where] it has deliberately become a lonelier power,” he said.

“The second feature of the landscape is, of course, the rise of China... And we are looking at very sharp competition,” the foreign minister said.

This rivalry, he said, has led to the “weaponisation of leverage” in an interconnected world where control over supply chains, production, markets and purchasing power determines strategic advantage.

“The question in an interdependent world is: who leverages what? In any transaction, does the supplier have leverage? Does the consumer have leverage? Do you get leverage by dominating production? Do you get leverage by having a great market share or having purchasing power?” Jaishankar asked.

The player with greater command over these factors and stronger determination ultimately holds the upper hand, he observed.

To avoid destabilisation from the dual-power contest, he proposed a middle path.

“Where the world is concerned, particularly in the context of US-China rivalry, I think we are looking at what is often called the Goldilocks scenario. You don’t want it to be too hot; you don’t want it to be too good; you want it somewhere in between at the right temperature,” he said.

Jaishankar said emerging and middle powers -- spanning both the Global South and Global North -- are responding with greater self-awareness of their interests and a push toward self-reliance, a theme central to India’s Atmanirbhar vision.

“What unites the emerging and middle powers, differentiated as they may be, is a growing self-awareness of their interest. All of them, in a way, are becoming more self-reliant,” he noted. “It’s a term, ‘Atmanirbhar’, very much in vogue in India as well,” he said.

These nations, he explained, are diversifying and de-risking across economic, security and supply-chain domains, while building agenda-based cooperation rather than rigid alliances.

“Today, most of them are focused on diversifying and de-risking in every sense of the term, not just their economy or their security, but also building more resilient supply chains,” he said.

“The operating principle for emerging and middle powers should be, and perhaps is already, a reasonable degree of convergence. The days when you have to have an identity of views or a very strong congruence of interest, I think that’s too high a bar today. If you have enough touch points, that is good enough for countries to work together,” he said.

Through flexible platforms such as BRICS and issue-specific coalitions, a new architecture is gradually emerging in which middle powers collectively seek greater relevance and stabilising influence in a multipolar world, Jaishankar added.