Can Nifty50, BSE Sensex Snap the Losing Streak? Stock Market Today Prediction Inside

Indian stock markets remain in a state of cautious consolidation as benchmarks struggle to break free from a downtrend. On Tuesday morning, GIFT Nifty signalled a flat-to-negative start to the session, hinting at a lack of strong directional momentum despite a positive handover from Wall Street and Asia.

The benchmark indices ended Monday on a weak note, extending losses for the fourth consecutive trading session. However, select pockets like mid- and small-cap stocks and Pharma sectors showed strength, offering hope to investors eyeing sectoral rotation and stock-specific opportunities.

Monday Market Recap: Benchmarks in Red, Broader Markets Outperform
On Monday, July 14, the BSE Sensex fell 247.01 points (0.30%) to close at 82,253.46, while the NSE Nifty dipped 67.55 points (0.27%) to 25,082.30. The decline reflected continued investor caution as the earnings season picks up pace.

However, the broader market defied the weak headline indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.70% and Nifty Smallcap 100 climbing 1.02%.

“The benchmark Nifty index ended in the red for the fourth consecutive trading session, signalling ongoing weakness in the broader sentiment,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research (Equity) at SBI Securities.

“However, the index found some stability near the psychologically crucial 25,000 level, which acted as a support zone and triggered a modest intraday pullback,” he added.

Market Expert Ajay Bagga said, "Indian markets recovered from session lows on Monday in a sign that the 4 day fall, the first since March, may be coming to an end. The broader indices were up in contrast to the negative leader board indices. The global outlook is resilient today, with US markets ending mildly positive and Asian markets up this morning on the back of a , once more resilient , 5.2% growth in the Chinese GDP for Q2.. Trump Tariffs noise is being overshadowed by economic "resilience" in the US and China, with focus shifting to Big Bank earnings today and later in the week. US CPI number will show a mild upswing in the inflation trajectory with PPI due on Wednesday giving an idea of the supply chain impact of Trump Tariffs. "

Nifty & Sensex: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
According to Shah, immediate support for the Nifty lies in the 24,980–24,950 zone. A breach below this could lead to a decline toward 24,800–24,770.
“On the upside, Nifty faces a critical resistance at 25,170–25,200. A decisive move above this would be required to shift short-term sentiment in favour of the bulls,” he said, advising traders to remain cautious.

For the Sensex, the 20-day EMA zone of 81,950–81,900 is a crucial support, while the immediate hurdle stands at 82,600–82,700, Shah noted.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty showed resilience on Monday, outperforming other indices and closing flat. It has immediate support at 56,550–56,500, with strong resistance at 57,000–57,100.

Sector Outlook: Pharma May Lead, IT Likely to Lag
Looking ahead, Shah believes sectoral rotation will play a critical role in determining market leadership.

“Technically, Nifty Pharma and Healthcare are likely to outperform in the short term. On the flip side, Nifty IT and Nifty India Defence are likely to underperform,” he said.
This suggests investors may find better opportunities in defensive and consumption-linked sectors, while the export-heavy IT space remains under pressure, possibly due to global macro uncertainty and currency fluctuations.

FII-DII Flow: Foreign Selling Continues
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to offload Indian equities, selling Rs 1,614.32 crore in the cash segment on Monday. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 1,787.68 crore, partially offsetting the FII exodus.

Persistent FII selling amid global volatility and domestic valuation concerns has kept sentiment fragile, even as DIIs lend some support.

Global Markets: Mixed Cues Add to Volatility
On the global front, Wall Street ended Monday’s session marginally higher, shrugging off concerns over new tariff threats from former President Donald Trump.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88 points (0.2%), the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3%.

“On Monday, all three major U.S. indices witnessed a lacklustre and directionless trading session. Despite the choppy movement, they managed to end the day in positive territory,” Shah said.

“The subdued action on Wall Street came even as market participants weighed President Donald Trump's threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1st,” he added.

Technically, the S&P 500 remains in a bullish trend, trading above key moving averages. The index could test the 6,350 mark, while immediate support lies between 6,220–6,200.

Bagga also said, “In US Big Bank earnings today , investment banking revenues will be subdued due to weak business confidence leading to postponement of fund raising and mergers and acquisition activities. However, trading revenues will benefit , like the Q1, from the violent volatility unleashed by the Trump policies.”

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Commodities & Currency: Brent Oil Sideways, Dollar Index Gains
In commodities, Brent Crude fell more than 2% on Monday, though its broader trend remains sideways. The 200-day EMA near $71–71.50 is acting as a crucial resistance, while $67.50–67.30 is the immediate support area.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed above its 20-day EMA for the second straight session. Shah expects the 98.70–99 zone to offer resistance, with support at 97.50–97.

Bagga added, “Oil shrugged off Trump threats of secondary tariffs on Russian oil importing countries if Russia does not come to the negotiating table in 50 days.”

Asia-Pacific Markets: China GDP Lifts Sentiment
In early Tuesday trade, Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher as China’s second-quarter GDP growth beat analyst estimates, boosting regional sentiment. This may offer some near-term support to Indian equities as well.

Final Take: Caution Still the Key
Despite strong performance in mid and small caps, headline indices remain vulnerable due to global uncertainties, earnings season volatility, and technical resistance near current levels.
Investors should track key support levels of Nifty (24,950) and Sensex (81,900) closely, while watching sectors like Pharma for short-term opportunities. For traders, it’s a time to stay selective and avoid aggressive long positions until a clear breakout emerges.
 

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