India Set To Lead Global Growth Chart: Moody’s Projects 7.0% GDP Surge In 2025, 6.5% In 2027

Amid a "mixed picture" for global growth, Moody's Ratings has spotlighted India as a beacon of economic resilience, projecting the nation to be the fastest-growing major economy throughout the 2026-2027 period.

The latest Global Macro Outlook 2026-27 report forecasts a strong upward trajectory for India's Real GDP growth, particularly in 2026, driven by robust domestic factors and strategic global positioning.

The report highlights India’s strong domestic momentum and strategic trade positioning amid a slowing global economy. “We expect Brazil and India — the fastest-growing G-20 economy — will grow at 2.0% and 6.5%, respectively, through 2027, supported by domestic and export diversification,” the outlook states.

The Growth Engine: GDP & Inflation Outlook

Moody’s projections place India's annual average real GDP growth rate significantly above that of its G-20 Emerging Market peers. It forecasts real GDP growth of 7.0% in 2025, 6.4% in 2026, and 6.5% in 2027.

This 7.0% projection for 2025 marks the highest growth rate across all G-20 economies analysed in the outlook.

On the price front, inflation is projected to remain largely anchored, nearing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range. The inflation forecast for 2027 is 4.0%, aligning perfectly with the central bank’s medium-term target of 4.0% (+/-2.0%).

Growth will be fueled by robust infrastructure investment and steady consumer spending, even as private sector capital expenditure remains cautious. Indian exporters have shown resilience despite U.S. tariffs, with overall exports rising 6.75% in September while shipments to the U.S. fell 11.9%.

Monetary Policy: The RBI’s Steady Hand

While central banks globally are witnessing policy divergence, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is noted for its prudent, stable approach.

The report notes that emerging market monetary policies are varied, with the RBI "holding steady" on its repo rate in October. Moody's attributes this cautious stance to a strong domestic outlook, stating the RBI "is cautious on policy with inflation subdued and growth strong".

Also Read: India & Nepal To Open New Rail Routes From Kolkata & Vizag: LoE Signed

Trade Strategy: Deepening Ties Amid Decoupling

The global trade landscape is currently defined by rising restrictions and the potential economic decoupling between the US and China. In this environment, India is strategically moving to deepen its bilateral and regional trade relationships.

A UK-India Free Trade Agreement signed in July 2025 awaits ratification, while talks with the European Union are accelerating. Alongside Brazil, Mexico, and Türkiye, India is prioritising economic security and export redirection.