Stock Market Next Week: Will Nifty Rise or Fall? Expert Decodes What’s Ahead for Investors

After a strong October run that added more than 1,500 points to the Nifty, the Indian stock market paused for breath at the end of the month. On October 31, benchmark indices slipped, the Sensex closed 465.75 points lower at 83,938.71, while the Nifty 50 fell 155.75 points to 25,722.10.

According to Sudeep Shah, Vice-President & Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, the market is showing clear signs of consolidation after an exceptional rally. 
“The index came close to its record peak but eventually lost momentum as global uncertainties and profit-taking at higher levels capped the upside,” Shah said. “Nifty ended the week with a marginal loss of 0.28%, forming a Shooting Star candle on the weekly chart, a sign of exhaustion following the sharp rally.”

Nifty Outlook: Range-Bound Moves Likely
For the past 11 sessions, the Nifty has been oscillating within a narrow band of 26,104–25,711, reflecting indecision among traders. Shah noted that the 20-day EMA is catching up with price action, signalling a slowdown in the pace of the uptrend.

Key Levels to Watch
Support: 25,520–25,500, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 24,588–26,104 rally.
Breakdown Below Support: Could extend the pullback to around 25,300.
Resistance: 26,100–26,150, a close above this may reignite bullish momentum and set up a retest of record highs.

Shah expects the Nifty to remain range-bound next week, with traders watching for a breakout on either side to confirm the next directional move.

Sensex View: Profit-Taking After the Rally
The Sensex, which rallied nearly 5,000 points since early October, also showed fatigue. “The index faced profit booking near the 85,100 zone, which has now become a crucial resistance area,” Shah said, pointing to a Shooting Star formation on the weekly chart,  a potential sign of trend exhaustion.

Support: 83,500 - a close below this could push the Sensex toward 83,000.
Resistance: 85,100 - a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 85,500–86,000.

In the short term, Shah expects range-bound trade with mild volatility as markets digest prior gains.

Bank Nifty: Signs of Fatigue After Record High
The Bank Nifty hit a new all-time high of 58,578 before encountering selling pressure near the 58,450–58,600 zone. Shah said, “Profit booking restricted further upside, indicating traders have turned selective after steep gains.”

Bank Nifty Levels
Support: 57,600–57,500 - near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (54,227–58,578 rally).
Resistance: 58,400–58,500 - a close above this could trigger a move toward 59,000–59,500.

Despite some fatigue, Shah said, “The banking index remains strong structurally, and dips toward 57,500 should attract buying interest.”

Sectoral Performance: PSU Banks and Infra Lead
While headline indices consolidated, certain sectors continued to outperform. Shah highlighted the following trends:
PSU Banks: Continued leadership, hitting a new record high of 8,272. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD remain bullish.
Oil & Gas: Showed renewed strength after a trendline breakout. “Widening DI lines and rising MACD histograms confirm robust momentum,” he said.
Realty: Consolidating above key moving averages with rising ADX, signalling strengthening trend dynamics.
Infrastructure: Delivered a trendline breakout on the Nifty Infra/Nifty ratio chart with a bullish MACD crossover, a sign of continued strength.
Metals: Witnessed mild profit-taking but remain in a bullish zone, trading above all major moving averages.
Manufacturing: Rebounded from its 100-day EMA, with RSI turning upward, indicating renewed buying interest.

“Market breadth remains positive,” Shah said, “with PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, Realty, and Infra expected to lead short-term outperformance.”

Global and Macro Cues in Play
Investor sentiment turned cautious after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that another rate cut in December “is not a given” following the 25 bps cut this week. That remark sparked mild profit-booking across global markets.

However, optimism around a potential India–US trade agreement earlier in the week had supported domestic equities, showing how sensitive Indian markets remain to global headlines.

What Lies Ahead for the Stock Market Next Week
Looking ahead, analysts expect the Indian stock market to consolidate further, with Nifty and Sensex moving within tight ranges. A decisive breakout above resistance or breakdown below support will determine the next leg of movement.
Key takeaways for the upcoming week:
Range-bound movement likely in Nifty (25,500–26,150) and Sensex (83,500–85,100).
Cooling momentum suggests traders may adopt a wait-and-watch approach.
Sectoral rotation likely, with PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, and Infra sectors showing relative strength.
Global cues and FII flows will remain key triggers.

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