Major US Firms Mulling Moving To India As Trump’s H1B Visa Tantrums Continue: Report

US President Donald Trump’s latest crackdown on H-1B visas could reshape global labour strategies, with India emerging as a critical hub for high-value work.

Trump recently raised the cost of new H-1B visa applications to $100,000, compared to the earlier range of $2,000 to $5,000, Reuters reported.

The move, alongside fresh legislative efforts in the US Senate to tighten rules on both H-1B and L-1 visa programmes, has left American companies grappling with cost pressures and talent shortages. Industry experts say the natural fallout will be an accelerated shift of high-value work to India’s Global Capability Centres (GCCs).

India Already Leads the GCC Landscape
India is home to more than 1,700 GCCs, accounting for over half of the global tally. Once known for basic tech support, these centres have evolved into hubs of innovation, ranging from luxury car dashboard design to advanced drug discovery.

According to Reuters, the rise of artificial intelligence adoption and increasing visa curbs are pushing firms to rethink strategies, with GCCs blending global expertise with strong domestic leadership.

‘GCCs Are Uniquely Positioned’
“GCCs are uniquely positioned for this moment. They serve as a ready in-house engine,” said Rohan Lobo, partner and GCC industry leader at Deloitte India. He told Reuters that several 
US firms were reassessing their workforce needs, with plans already underway to shift more work to India.

Lobo pointed to the growing activity in sectors such as financial services and technology, especially among companies with exposure to US federal contracts. He added that GCCs would increasingly “take on more strategic, innovation-led mandates” in the future.

High-End Work Could Move to India
If Trump’s visa curbs remain, experts expect high-end roles tied to AI, product development, cybersecurity, and analytics to be relocated to India. Rather than outsourcing to third-party vendors, US firms are seen preferring in-house GCC structures in India to retain control over critical work.

“There is a sense of urgency,” said Lalit Ahuja, founder and CEO of ANSR, which has helped global players such as FedEx, Target, Lowe’s, and Bristol-Myers Squibb set up their GCCs. “This whole ‘gold rush’ will only get accelerated.”

Extreme Offshoring on the Horizon?
The visa restrictions could even spark “extreme offshoring,” according to Ramkumar Ramamoorthy, former managing director of Cognizant India. He noted that the COVID-19 pandemic had already proved critical tasks could be executed from anywhere, making GCC expansion a natural response for US firms.

Major sponsors of H-1B visas, including Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google parent Alphabet, JPMorgan Chase, and Walmart, already maintain large-scale operations in India.

Reuters reported that while these companies declined to comment on the politically sensitive issue, many are quietly reassessing India strategies.

“Either more roles will move to India, or corporations will near-shore them to Mexico or Colombia. Canada could also take advantage,” said the India head of a retail GCC.

Market Size Nearing $100 Billion
Even before the latest policy changes, projections suggested that India could host GCCs of more than 2,200 companies by 2030, with the market size nearing $100 billion. With Trump’s visa restrictions, this trajectory could accelerate further.

Risks from the HIRE Act and US-India Tensions
However, not all industry leaders are bullish. Some are taking a “wait and watch” approach amid potential headwinds such as the proposed HIRE Act, which could impose a 25% tax on outsourcing work overseas.

“For now, we are observing and studying, and being ready for outcomes,” said the India head of a US drugmaker’s GCC.
US-India trade tensions, which have already spilled over from goods to services, may complicate matters further. Visa curbs and the threat of outsourcing taxes could dent India’s cost advantage and disrupt cross-border service flows.

GCCs Could Cushion the Blow
Despite risks, India’s $283-billion IT industry, which contributes nearly 8% of GDP, could find a cushion in the GCC surge. Analysts at Nomura told Reuters:
“Lost revenues from H-1B visa reliant businesses could be somewhat supplanted by higher services exports through GCCs, as US-based firms look to bypass immigration restrictions to outsource talent.”

The Bottom Line
While Trump’s H-1B visa crackdown may squeeze India’s IT outsourcing giants, it could also turbocharge the GCC story. With over 1,700 centres already operating in the country and more global firms expected to expand their footprint, India looks poised to benefit from America’s tightening immigration stance.

(With Inputs From Reuters)

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