Does High Voter Turn Out Translate to Anti-Incumbency? Here’s What Bihar’s History Says

Bihar has registered its best-ever voter turnout in the history of the state at 65.08% in the first phase of the 22025 Bihar Legislative Assembly elections. The high voting percentage in the Bihar Legislative Assembly election has been a source of confidence for Mahagatbandhan and Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj Party, who are both holding on to the concept that the increased voter count would translate to anti-incumbency. But has that been the case in Bihar’s political history?

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Why does a high voter percentage mean anti-incumbency?

The idea that more people voting in elections means a change in the government has been a long-held political wisdom that analysts and pundits stick to. However, historically, it has been challenged multiple times including the 2019 general election that saw the highest voter turnout in India’s history at 67.40%, a significant jump from 66.44% in 2014.  However, despite the bumper turnout, incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected for another term in the office.

Has higher voter participation led to anti-incumbency in Bihar historically?

If the last 50 years’ history of Bihar is taken into account, the picture is mixed at best.

1977 Election
The 1977 election saw a high voter turnout of approximately 51.5%, a surge following the widely opposed Emergency imposed by the central government. This sharp increase in participation was a clear sign of anti-incumbency. Voters were highly motivated to punish the existing political establishment, leading to a decisive victory for the newly formed Janata Party, which swept Congress out of power.

1980 Election
Turnout increased further to around 55.6% in the 1980 election. Despite the increase, this election also resulted in anti-incumbency. The Janata Party government, which had been in power briefly after the 1977 win, was dismissed by the central government, leading to fresh polls. The high turnout, therefore, reflected a continued desire for political stability and change, which benefited the Congress party as it returned to form the government.

1990 Election
The 1990 election registered a significant jump in participation, reaching approximately 62.0%. This high turnout strongly indicated anti-incumbency against the decades-long rule of the Congress party. The electorate was mobilized by the emerging politics of social justice, leading to a massive mandate for the Janata Dal, led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, and marking a major shift in the state’s political landscape.

2005 (Feb) Election
The turnout in the February 2005 election actually dropped significantly to around 46.6%. Despite the lower turnout compared to previous high-water marks, this election was characterized by strong anti-incumbency against the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) government. The result was a hung assembly, showing that voter dissatisfaction (anti-incumbency) can manifest through a decline in support for the ruling party, even if overall turnout is not high.

2010 Election
The 2010 election is a crucial counter-example, as voter turnout surged dramatically to 52.7%. This substantial increase was not a sign of anti-incumbency but rather pro-incumbency satisfaction. Voters were highly energized to support the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, led by Nitish Kumar, due to perceived improvements in law, order, and governance, resulting in a historic landslide victory for the alliance.

2015 Election
Turnout continued to be high, rising further to approximately 56.7%. The result was continuity (a form of pro-incumbency for the alliance). The incumbent Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, who had allied with the RJD and Congress to form the Grand Alliance, was reaffirmed in power. The high mobilization, in this case, signaled strong public approval for the combined opposition platform, endorsing the continuity of the Chief Minister.

2020 Election
The 2020 election saw a marginal increase in turnout to around 57.3%, occurring despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the previous two elections, the result was one of continuity (pro-incumbency for the alliance). The incumbent NDA coalition, though with a reduced mandate, managed to secure a majority and form the government, demonstrating that high participation did not guarantee a successful anti-incumbency wave capable of unseating the ruling coalition.

All data considered, it is clear that while higher voter turnout leading to anti-incumbency used to be the case from the 70s to the 90s, but in the last decade, an increase in voter percentage has led to the incumbent being voted back to power.