Karnataka election result: Vote share analysis comparing swings in 2018 Vs 2023 polls

The Congress party has registered a record vote share in the Karnataka assembly elections 2023 which it won comfortably. According to the Election Commission's data, Congress bagged 43.1% of the vote share followed by the BJP (35.7%) and the Janata Dal Secular or JDS (13.3%). This makes it Congress' highest-ever vote share in 34 years and part of it can be accredited to the party eating into the votes of the JDS. 

Vote share comparison: 2018 Vs 2023

In the 2018 Karnataka elections, the Congress party won 78 seats out of 224 or 39% of the vote share. It managed to increase the number by 5%. The BJP, on the other hand, despite being ahead in only 64 constituencies saw its vote share drop from 36.2% in 2018 to 35.8% now in 2023. This is because the previous assembly polls saw a hung assembly as neither party managed to secure a majority; even the BJP only won 104 seats. 

As for the JDS, its vote share dropped from 18.3% in 2018 to 13.4% in 2023, which is a swing of about 5%. In the previous assembly election, the JDS now led by HD Kumaraswamy won 37 seats but has managed to maintain a lead in only 20 constituencies so far. Kumaraswamy, however, will emerge victorious as he is leading in the Channapatna constituency with 72,976 and trailing him is BJP's CP Yogeshwara (59,243 votes). 

Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai from the BJP and his rival DK Shivakumar, are also winning by a considerable margin in Shiggaon and Kanakapura. While the former is ahead of Congress nominee Yasir Ahmed Khan with 99,073 votes, Shivakumar has already won with 1,42,156 votes defeating the BJP's R Ashoka (19,602 votes). Former Karnataka CM and Congress veteran Siddaramaiah also secured 1,19,430 votes, registering a comfortable win over the BJP's V Somanna (73,424 votes).

With the victory finalised, the question before the Congress party remains about who will assume the CM's post next in Karnataka. There are serious speculations about the Congress leadership choosing between Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah. Another Congress leader G Parameshwara is also said to be in the race.