Arming The Kurds Against Iran: A Familiar Strategy With A Familiar Tragedy

History has an uncomfortable habit of returning when people least expect it. It rarely repeats itself in identical form, but the patterns remain unmistakably familiar. 

Today, as reports emerge that the United States is considering arming Kurdish groups inside Iran to pressure Tehran, there is a quiet sense of déjà vu in Kurdish political circles. 

Not a new chapter

For the Kurds, this is not a new chapter. It is a story they have watched unfold many times before, each time ending with the same painful lesson. 

When great powers make promises in moments of geopolitical confrontation, the oppressed often hear opportunity. But when those confrontations shift, the oppressed are usually the ones left to deal with the consequences.

Complex geopolitical spaces

The Kurdish people occupy one of the most complex geopolitical spaces in the world. Spread across Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, they represent one of the largest stateless nations on the planet. 

Their history is filled with resistance, resilience, and an unending struggle for recognition. Yet it is also a history marked by repeated betrayals, not just by regional states but by the global powers that have, time and again, used Kurdish aspirations as tactical instruments in larger strategic battles.

More about Kurdish rebels

The pattern goes back decades. In 1975, Kurdish rebels in Iraq believed they had found powerful allies. At the time, external powers were eager to weaken Saddam Hussein’s regime, and support quietly flowed to Kurdish fighters. 

Weapons, intelligence, and encouragement created the impression that the Kurdish cause was finally aligned with a global strategic interest. But geopolitics has little patience for loyalty. 

When Iran and Iraq signed the Algiers Agreement in 1975, the strategic equation changed overnight. 

The external support that Kurdish rebels depended upon vanished instantly. Baghdad was suddenly free to retaliate without restraint, and the Kurdish uprising collapsed. Thousands paid the price for a geopolitical calculation made far away from the mountains where the fighting had taken place.

The Anfal campaign

The Kurdish tragedy did not end there. In 1988, Saddam Hussein’s regime launched the Anfal campaign, one of the most brutal military operations carried out against a civilian population in the late twentieth century. 

Kurdish villages were destroyed, populations were displaced, and chemical weapons were used in attacks that shocked the world. International condemnation followed, but condemnation did not stop the devastation when it mattered most. Once again, the Kurdish people stood largely alone while the machinery of state power moved against them.

‘They rose in rebellion’

Then came 1991. After the Gulf War, the United States signalled to Iraqis that they should rise up against Saddam Hussein. Kurdish groups in northern Iraq responded, believing that the moment had finally arrived when global power would align with Kurdish aspirations. 

Encouraged by Washington’s rhetoric, they rose in rebellion. But when the uprising faltered, the anticipated support did not arrive in time. 

Saddam’s forces responded with overwhelming brutality, forcing millions of Kurds to flee toward the mountains in one of the largest refugee crises the region had ever seen. 

Only after the humanitarian catastrophe unfolded did the international community intervene by establishing safe zones. Once again, Kurdish hopes had collided with the harsh reality of great power politics.

Same pattern in Syria

More recently, the same pattern played out in Syria. Kurdish fighters became one of the most effective ground forces in the battle against ISIS. They fought fiercely, losing thousands of soldiers while helping dismantle the territorial caliphate that had threatened the stability of the entire region. 

For a moment, it appeared that the Kurdish-American partnership had evolved into something deeper than a temporary alliance. Kurdish forces were widely seen as Washington’s most reliable partners on the ground. But geopolitics rarely rewards loyalty. 

As regional pressures increased and strategic priorities shifted, American troops began withdrawing from certain areas, forcing Kurdish leaders to make urgent arrangements with Damascus and Moscow to prevent Turkish incursions. Once again, the Kurds were reminded that in international politics alliances are not built on emotional commitments. They are built on strategic convenience.

Latest developments surrounding Iran

That long history of uneasy alliances forms the backdrop to the latest developments surrounding Iran. Reports now suggest that Washington may be exploring ways to support Kurdish armed groups inside Iranian territory. 

The objective appears relatively straightforward. By encouraging internal unrest and stretching Tehran’s security forces across multiple fronts, the Iranian regime could be forced to divert resources away from its regional activities and focus more heavily on maintaining stability at home. 

From a purely strategic perspective, the logic is easy to understand. Iran maintains its authority through a powerful and extensive security apparatus. If that apparatus is forced to confront internal insurgencies, ethnic tensions, and economic unrest simultaneously, the regime’s grip could weaken.

Yet the critical question remains: pressure toward what outcome?

This is where the signals coming from Washington become contradictory. On one hand, discussions appear to be taking place about empowering Kurdish groups to increase internal pressure on Tehran. 

On the other hand, President Donald Trump has made it clear that regime change in Iran is not his objective. Speaking alongside the German Chancellor at the White House on March 3, 2026, Trump emphasised that any political transformation in Iran must ultimately come from the people inside the country. 

His remarks suggested that Washington does not see external opposition movements, including exiled political figures such as the former shah’s son Reza Pahlavi, as viable alternatives capable of replacing the current Iranian state structure.

Difference carries enormous risks.

This distinction is not merely rhetorical. It fundamentally shapes the strategic environment in which Kurdish actors would be operating. If the United States is not pursuing regime change, then any support for Kurdish armed groups would almost certainly be tactical rather than strategic. 

The goal would not be to build a new political order in Iran or to secure Kurdish autonomy within the country. The goal would be to create pressure points inside the Iranian state at a time of heightened regional confrontation.

For Kurdish movements, that difference carries enormous risks. Tactical alliances are inherently temporary. They exist only as long as they serve the interests of the stronger partner. 

Once the strategic environment shifts, the alliance can disappear with astonishing speed. The Kurdish experience over the past half century demonstrates this reality with painful clarity.

There is another troubling dimension to the current situation. There is little evidence that Washington has developed a coherent long-term Kurdish policy for Iran or for the broader region. 

Kurdish populations exist across several national borders, each with its own political dynamics and security concerns. Without a comprehensive framework addressing Kurdish political aspirations, any support offered in the current moment would likely operate within a narrow military or intelligence context rather than a broader political strategy.

A dangerous arena

That leaves Kurdish actors entering a dangerous arena. They would not be shaping the strategy. They would be operating within someone else’s strategy. And strategies designed in distant capitals rarely prioritise the long-term survival of movements on the ground.

For the Kurdish people, the lesson history offers is both harsh and unavoidable. Each time Kurdish movements have entered the geopolitical conflicts of larger powers, they have done so with the belief that this moment would finally lead to recognition and lasting political rights. 

Each time, the realities of international politics have intervened. Great powers pursue interests, not friendships. When those interests evolve, alliances shift quickly, leaving local actors exposed to retaliation from the states they challenged.

None of this means that Kurdish aspirations are illegitimate or unrealistic. 

On the contrary, the Kurdish question remains one of the most unresolved national questions in the modern Middle East. Millions of Kurds continue to seek political recognition, cultural protection, and a greater degree of autonomy within the states they inhabit. But history suggests that those aspirations are unlikely to be secured through tactical alignments in the geopolitical battles of great powers.

Real political change requires durable frameworks, negotiated protections, and long-term commitments that survive beyond moments of strategic tension.

Until such guarantees exist, Kurdish movements would do well to remember the most enduring lesson of their own history. When powerful nations offer weapons during times of confrontation, they are rarely offering freedom. They are offering a role in a conflict that ultimately belongs to someone else.

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