Soviet Union-made failed Venus probe 'Venera' will crash on Earth in 2025-26: Report

The Venera probe, which was launched to Venus by the now-defunct Soviet Union, is heading toward the Earth for a crash. This revelation was made by scientist Marco Langbroek, who published his findings in The Space Review, an online publication that focuses on space-related issues.

According to Langbroek, the probe, which was named Kosmos 482, left for Venus on 31 March 1972, just a few days after the launch of Venera 8 but failed to escape the Earth's orbit. As a result of being stuck, the mission ended in a failure and the probe is now heading for a crash later this decade.

Kosmos 482's crash likely in 2025-26

Langbroek revealed that the object now named 1972-023E is the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft, and is likely to enter the Earth's atmosphere in 2025 or 2026. His report further asserted that the object is only the landing module, which would have actually landed on Venus, and not a substantially larger part of Venera hardware. Besides, the module will most likely survive the Earth's atmosphere during re-entry as it was designed to endure Venus' atmosphere which is much denser and unforgiving. 

How did the probe get stuck?

Launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, Kosmos 482 made it to outer space just four days after the launch of Venera 8. Langbroek explained that once it crossed the Earth's atmosphere, the mission's upper stage meant to propel the probe into a heliocentric orbit to Venus shut down prematurely. This apparently happened due to a wrongly-set timer which caused the probe to get stuck in an inclined and highly elliptical orbit around the Earth. Notably, the main payload is said to have separated into two objects, one of which is the soon-to-crash Kosmos 482. 

[Comparison of Kosmos 482's orbit in 1972 (in red) and in 2022 (white); Image: Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC)]

According to Langbroek, there is also a second object, which was designated 1972-023A and was the Venera main bus that separated from Kosmos over a month after the launch. However, it crashed in May 1981 after it re-entered the Earth nine years after the launch. As for its current status, the Kosmos 482 has lost over 7,700 kilometers of the orbital altitude where it was stuck fifty years ago (see image for reference). Langbroek further said that he has not recorded any fluctuations in the object's brightness, something which has remained fairly stable.