Why US-Iran Nuclear Deal May Not Fully End Israel's Concern

The third round of indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations is taking place in Geneva, mediated by Oman. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is leading their delegation while the US side features Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Discussions build on earlier rounds that established basic principles but delivered no major agreement yet. The Trump administration is applying heavy pressure through a large military deployment in the region, new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector, and repeated warnings of military action if diplomacy fails. Iran has signaled willingness to lower uranium enrichment from 60 percent toward JCPOA-era levels and pause high-level work for years, yet it firmly opposes zero enrichment, shipping out stockpiles, or curbs on missiles and regional allies—positions the US considers non-negotiable red lines.If talks break down, the most likely consequences include US or Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, which could ignite a wider regional war. Iran has promised strong retaliation, potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil prices sharply, triggering proxy conflicts across the Middle East, and causing severe economic and humanitarian damage on all sides. While both prefer a diplomatic outcome, failure raises the real risk of direct confrontation.