Updated 13 February 2026 at 13:06 IST
BNP’s Bangladesh Landslide: What Does Rahman’s Rise Mean for India?
Tarique Rahman’s BNP win in Bangladesh marks a turning point for India, forcing Delhi to recalibrate its strategy on borders, minorities, and trade. The absence of Jamaat in government is a relief, but China and Pakistan remain looming concerns.
New Delhi: Tarique Rahman’s dramatic return and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) sweeping victory have reshaped Dhaka’s political landscape and placed India at a critical juncture. For New Delhi, the outcome is not just about a neighbour’s election, it is about recalibrating strategy in a region where every move reverberates across South Asia.
A Dramatic Comeback
Rahman, son of former President Ziaur Rahman and ex-Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, returned from 17 years in exile to lead BNP’s campaign. His victory speech promised a “plan for Bangladesh,” but for India the real question is whether that plan will tilt Dhaka closer to Delhi or toward Beijing and Islamabad.
India’s Quick Diplomatic Outreach
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first to congratulate Rahman, signalling India’s intent to secure goodwill before China or Pakistan could move in. The message emphasized support for a “democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh,” but the subtext was clear: India wants stability after 18 months of upheaval, communal violence, and Dhaka’s flirtations with rival powers.
Strategic Concerns for Delhi
Pakistan–China–Bangladesh Axis: Analysts warn of a possible alignment if Rahman’s foreign policy proves less India-friendly than Hasina’s. Such a nexus could weaken Delhi’s influence in South Asia and complicate security in the northeast.
- Border Security: The 4,100 km India–Bangladesh border remains a flashpoint, with infiltration attempts rising since Hasina’s departure. Illegal migration and smuggling are politically sensitive issues ahead of Bengal and Assam elections.
- Minority Safety: Attacks on Hindus escalated after Hasina fled, with India reporting at least 23 deaths. Rahman has promised protection, but BNP’s conservative leanings raise doubts about enforcement.
- Trade Relations: Bilateral trade worth $14 billion annually, with India enjoying a $10 billion surplus, is a stabilizing factor. India supplies over 80% of cotton yarn for Bangladesh’s garment industry, making Dhaka structurally dependent on Delhi. Yet, diversification toward China remains a risk.
- China’s Footprint: Beijing’s investments in infrastructure, including Mongla Port modernization, are viewed in Delhi as potential dual-use military bases, part of China’s expanding Indian Ocean strategy.
From an Indian strategic lens, Rahman’s win is a mixed bag. On one hand, the absence of Jamaat-e-Islami in government spares Delhi the immediate challenge of dealing with a hardline Pakistani proxy. On the other, BNP’s Islamist roots and history of ties to Pakistan mean India cannot assume smooth relations.
The likely trajectory is a transactional relationship, less antagonistic than Jamaat, but not overtly pro-India like Hasina’s tenure. This predictability may be useful in the short term, but Delhi must prepare for volatility if Dhaka leans toward Beijing or Islamabad.
Rahman’s BNP victory ushers in a new era in Dhaka. For India, the task is to secure short-term cooperation on borders, minority protection, and trade, while preparing for the possibility of a regional axis that could reshape South Asia’s balance of power.
Published By : Priya Pathak
Published On: 13 February 2026 at 12:42 IST