Updated 10 June 2020 at 19:54 IST
COVID-19 could kill 50-100 million people globally: Report
If the coronavirus pandemic worsens with caseloads overwhelming health systems, it impacts could be like the 1918 H1N1 influenza that killed 50-100 million.
If the coronavirus pandemic worsens with caseloads overwhelming health systems, its impacts could be like the 1918 H1N1 influenza that killed 50-100 million people globally, the latest report published in medical journal Lancet stated. Since its outbreak in December 2019, the pandemic has already killed 72,64,866 people out of which 4,11,879 have died.
“High caseloads stress medical systems and can lead to more deaths if health-care systems become overwhelmed. Should the Covid-19 pandemic worsen, its effect might approach that of the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic, which had a CFR of more than 2% and caused 50–100 million deaths worldwide,” reserchers wrote.
'CFR rate of Coronavirus is 5.9 per cent'
Elaborating further, researchers, in the paper published on June 6, revealed that the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of seasonal influenza was only 0.1 per cent whereas that of coronavirus was 5.9 per cent in Hubei while 0.98 in another region of China. The paper titled 'Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the Covid-19 pandemic' was led by Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.
This comes as China, where the infection originated, has now seemingly controlled the outbreak with early restriction and repeated testing. However, asymptomatic cases in the country have caused a fear of a second wave. According to John Hopkins University, the Asian giant has till now reported 84,198 positive cases and 4638 deaths.
The paper asserted that China’s strategy to contain the virus has largely been successful. It revealed that an average,54 cases were reported in China between April 1 and May 31, most of them either imported or second-generation cases from importation. In addition, 0.6 fatalities, on an average, have been reported with most recent death April 4.
“There is no known ongoing community transmission, but the risk of local transmission introduced by internationally imported cases remains a major concern. Almost the entire population of China remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and, therefore, is at risk of a Covid-19 epidemic,” the paper added.
The authors further argued that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) without case finding, isolation and contact tracing will not be enough. In addendum, they also warned that the coronavirus might continue forever, till an effective vaccine is developed.
Published By : Riya Baibhawi
Published On: 10 June 2020 at 19:54 IST