Can Iran Negotiations Survive Escalating War? What’s Next For Mojtaba Khamenei, Donald Trump, and Netanyahu?

Airstrikes battered Iran’s capital and Iranian missiles and drones targeted Israel’s Tel Aviv and sites across the Mideast on Tuesday, even as President Donald Trump said the United States was in talks with the Islamic Republic to end the war.

With thousands more U.S. Marines on their way to the Gulf, both sides firing intense barrages and Iran denying any negotiations are taking place, the war’s tempo remained high a day after Trump delayed his self-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's chokehold on that crucial waterway has snarled international shipping, sent fuel prices skyrocketing, and threatened the world economy.

Any talks between the U.S. and Iran — which appeared at the most tentative Tuesday — would face monumental challenges. Many of Washington’s shifting list of objectives — particularly over Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs — remain difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, it’s not clear who in Iran’s government would have the authority to negotiate — or be willing to, particularly as Israel has vowed to continue taking out leaders after killing several.

Iran also remains highly suspicious of the United States, which twice under the Trump administration has attacked during high-level diplomatic talks, including with the Feb. 28 strikes that started the current war.

Iran’s military has conducted strikes on the orders of local commanders, rather than from the political leadership, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said early in the war. It remains unclear whether Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who reportedly was wounded and has yet to be seen publicly, is issuing orders to Iran’s regular military or its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which answered only to his late father.

While Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf called the idea of negotiations with the U.S. “fakenews,” Araghchi’s office acknowledged the foreign minister has been talking about the war this week with his counterparts in Azerbaijan, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Turkey and Turkmenistan.

Talk of negotiations briefly drove down oil prices and boosted stocks. But that respite was short-lived, with the price of Brent crude, the international standard, nudging back over $100 a barrel Tuesday, up nearly 40% since the war started.

Iran’s leaders are wary of Washington’s motives, in part because Tehran was in negotiations with the U.S. before the surprise attack that started the current war. Iran was also in talks last year when the U.S. and Israel attacked its nuclear facilities.

Trump’s announcement also comes as a contingent of thousands of Marines is on the way to the region, raising speculation that the U.S. may try to seize Kharg Island, which is vital to the country’s oil network.

The U.S. bombed the island in the Persian Gulf more than a week ago, hitting its defenses but saying it had left oil infrastructure intact.

Iran has threatened to mine the Persian Gulf if the U.S. appears to be on the verge of landing troops. That would complicate an amphibious assault and also imperil all shipping in the area.

Trump said he would hold off on a threat to bomb Iran’s power stations while talks unfold — a delay that could be timed to coincide with the arrival of U.S. Marines in the region, expected Friday, wrote the New York-based think tank the Soufan Center in an analysis.

Trump has said he has no plans to send ground forces into Iran but has not ruled it out. Israel has suggested its ground forces could take part in the war.