Political novice challenges Belarus strongman

As the former Soviet republic of Belarus heads into presidential elections on Sunday, many of the country's opposition politicians have rallied around an unlikely candidate to challenge the incumbent ruler Alexander Lukashenko.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 37, has been thrust into the spotlight after taking up the presidential campaign of her husband Siarhei Tsikhanousky, a popular blogger who was arrested in late May in what critics say was a politically motivated detention.

Sviatlana has no political experience and has said that if she wins, she will rule for just six months so that voters can choose what she called a "real politician" to take over from her as president.

Her husband had been a vocal opponent of President Lukashenko, who has led Belarus for 26 years, and now seeks a sixth presidential term.

Tens of thousands of people gathered in the country's capital Minsk last month in support of Tsikhanouskaya for what was described as the largest rally in Belarus' history since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Political analysts say the once-popular Lukashenko is seemingly losing his grip on the country and has in recent weeks has taken to strongman displays with military units and riot police.

Over the summer, there has been a growing wave of dissatisfaction with his regime, which has faced widespread criticism for a stunted economy, a dismissive attitude to the coronavirus pandemic and widespread human rights abuses.

Valery Tsepkalo, an opposition candidate who was not allowed on the presidential ballot, says he was forced to flee to Russia with his two children after large crowds of supporters gathered at his rallies.

"There were two different signals from two different sources that they (the Belarus authorities) were planning to arrest me," Tspekalo told the AP in Moscow.

Viktor Babariko, another popular candidate who was barred from the elections, told AP that he believes an opposition candidate has a chance against the sitting president.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya may be that candidate. She is riding a wave of popular support that has seen people flock to her rallies throughout the country and is promising that new elections will take place to help the country recover after she is elected.

"They are voting for a symbol of change. Tikhanovskaya is a symbol of changes," she added.

Alexander Klaskovsky, an independent political analyst based in Minsk, says that a combination of economic factors, political missteps and weariness with Lukashenko are contributing to her success.

"People are psychologically tired that the same exact person has been speaking from the television screen for 26 years, speaking in a monologue whose leitmotif is appealing to fear," he said.

"In this respect, the society has outgrown its authoritarian leader," he added.

Lukashenko, however, has made clear that he will not be pushed out of power easily.

He has lashed out at Tsikhanouskaya and her top campaign aides Veronika Tsepkalo and Maria Kolesnikova, referring to them dismissively as "these three poor girls".

Tsepkalo and Kolesnikova joined Tsikhanouskaya's team after the two opposition candidates they were backing - Valery Tsepkalo and Viktor Babariko - were barred from standing.