Russia-Ukraine war: What's catastrophic nuclear winter, a danger of nuclear warfare?

In his recent ‘escalate-to-de-escalate’ military strategy, Russian President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear deterrent forces on ‘alert’ in retaliation to the setback to the Russian economy, private banks, and financial institutions owing to the barrage of sanctions from the West. Russia’s military doctrine of sending its nuclear weapons on readiness has worsened concerns for the United States, UK, the West, and the NATO-allied EU nations, all of whom derided Moscow’s nuclear warfare threats that they stated would make the world “much more dangerous”. A senior US defence official, on condition of anonymity, made comments on Vladimir Putin's sweeping measure of putting his strategic nuclear forces on excessive alert.

Moscow's infamous Cold War 'escalate-to deescalate' military strategy 

“This is not only an unnecessary step for him [Putin] to take but an escalatory one,” the US defence official reportedly said, evoking the Cuban Missile Disaster of October 1962.

The dramatic crisis saw two nuclear superpowers, the then Soviet Union and United States’ dangerous confrontation during the Cold War that led to a missile launch site at San Cristobal, Cuba under the Kennedy administration’s Operation Mongoose after failing to overthrow the Castro regime in Cuba with the Bay of Pigs invasion.

(Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev and President John F. Kennedy talk in the residence of the US Ambassador in a suburb of Vienna. Fifty years after the Cuban missile crisis, the National Archives suggests President John F. Kennedy deliberated to avert nuclear war. Credit: AP)

During the conflict, the then Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev, in strong military strategy, struck a secret agreement with Cuban premier Fidel Castro and installed the Soviet nuclear missiles, MRBMs and IRBMs in Cuba and IL–28 bombers that sent the entire world on an alert. In response, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff had announced a military readiness status of DEFCON 3. Russia had similarly slammed West for “blockades” that it labelled an “act of aggression” 

Russia’s recent threat of activation of its deterrent forces is “unnecessary,” warned the US defence official. This is because Russia has “never been under threat by the West or by Nato and certainly wasn’t under any threat by Ukraine.,” he stated in a hardened tone. Russia’s military moves are “escalatory, and clearly potentially putting at play forces that, if there’s a miscalculation, could make things much, much more dangerous,” he said, referring to nuclear weapons. 

In this photo taken from a video distributed by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, Intercontinental ballistic missiles are launched by the Vladimir Monomakh nuclear submarine of the Russian navy.[Credit: AP]

“There’s a real possibility Putin could turn to nuclear weapons if he continues to experience military setbacks and sees the diplomatic and political situation crumbling,” meanwhile, Caitlin Talmadge, a nuclear coverage knowledgeable at Georgetown College, commented. This is also concerning as Russia’s nuclear doctrine, as revealed in 2020, gives Kremlin “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons” for “prevention of an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies.”

Moscow’s military strategy to counter conventional aggression with nuclear threats, the ’escalate to de-escalate strategy’ has come into play during the Russia Ukraine war. 

Russian nuclear submarines Prince Vladimir, above, and Yekaterinburg are harboured at a Russian naval base in Gazhiyevo, Kola Peninsula. [Credit: AP]

Russian nuclear submarine breaks through the Arctic ice during military drills at an unspecified location. [Credit: AP]

Russia’s nuclear deterrence, its catastrophic consequences: Global nuclear winter that can kill billion

In an event that Moscow “meddles” with its nuclear arsenal, drawing instances from the Cold War era, the globe is at the risk of decades of grim consequences from a nuclear war. The global climate that could reel under mushroom clouds, duck and cover drills, or local radiation fallout will have terrifying aftermaths beyond the initial nuclear explosions that would also critically impact the stratosphere, triggering a devastating nuclear winter. This, as per the scientists, could result in ‘nuclear winter’—the only question remains ‘How severe?’ Nuclear weapon explosions would rip into the atmosphere and destroy completely a portion of what is left of Earth's ozone layer.

Should Russian leader Vladimir Putin launch nuclear weaponry, experts estimate a decade-long winter that will linger after the explosions, wreaking havoc on temperatures, sunlight, and precipitation worldwide. Nuclear conflict, no doubt, will wreak destruction beyond political differences, military might, and will result in major climatic trauma for countries worldwide. Thick destructive plumes of nuclear smoke will block out the sunlight, and cause below-freezing temperatures in countries worldwide. “Even asphalt can burn at the temperatures these bombs get to,” warns Joshua Coupe, an atmospheric science doctoral candidate at Rutgers University.

Nuclear weapons’ black carbon absorbs radiation “very, very efficiently,” he asserts, meaning that “ air surrounding it becomes very buoyant and it’s able to lift [the soot] into the stratosphere.” This would cause a long-term, implying decades and decades of global climate response for humanity, killing billions. 

The threat of nuclear war, a Cold War relic “cannot be won and must never be fought,” experts warned as Putin ordered nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty.” Russia posturing its nuclear arsenal will have several nations put their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, on a high state of readiness. And while it may be ‘rare’ nuclear warfare cannot be totally dismissed. “Inserting nuclear weapons into the Ukraine war equation at this point is extremely dangerous, and the United States, President Biden, and NATO must act with extreme restraint,” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association stated in an address. 

IMAGE: AP