Ukraine intel claims Russia planning a 'false flag' attack on Belarus to drag it into war

Ukraine's intelligence is claiming that Russia is planning a false flag operation on its ally Belarus to draw it into the Russia Ukraine war. A Newsweek report mentions an analysis by the Institute for Study of War that says Russia's alleged plan to draw Belarus into the war will not work. Ukraine's intelligence GUR is claiming that Russia is planning to attack Belarus and then blame it on Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia will target Belarus' critical infrastructure in the regions of Grodno and Brest and the nuclear power plant in Ostrovets. GUR claims that Russia's hope is - an attack on Belarus will turn the public opinion in Belarus in favour of war with Ukraine. Belarus has already played an indirect role in the Russia-Ukraine war by allowing Russian troops to use Belarus as a launchpad for their attack on Kyiv. 

Belarus won't get involved in the Ukraine war?

In the early days of the war, Russian troops crossed Ukraine's northern border and marched towards Kyiv with the intention of overthrowing the government. However, Moscow did not succeed as Russian troops suffered from multiple logistical problems. Many of their tanks and armoured vehicles broke down on the road. Russian troops were also sending their armoured division without the protection of infantry, which allowed Ukrainian troops to target the armoured divisions with anti-tank missiles such as NLAWS. 

Belarus has also provided Russia with logistical support, to resolve the logistical challenges Russian troops were facing. As of now, Belarus has hesitated to get directly involved with the war. The analysis by Institute for Study of War states that a false flag operation on Belarus won't "change the domestic factors" that are preventing Minsk from entering into the war. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has over the years witnessed wide scale protests against his regime. 

He has blamed the EU and the West for these protests. The ISW analysis states that Alexander Lukashenko is concerned about the stability of his regime and if Belarus were to send troops to Ukraine, the death of those troops would trigger a movement against his regime. According to Chatham House, a think tank based in London, only 10 percent of Belarus' population supports a war with Ukraine.