Trump '50/50' on Iran: Will Meet Envoys on New Deal Before Deciding to Resume War or Sign Pact
President Trump says it is a "solid 50/50" chance between signing a deal with Iran or resuming military strikes, with a final decision expected as soon as Sunday.
The future of the conflict with Iran hangs in a delicate balance, with a critical decision expected as early as Sunday.
In a telephone interview on Saturday, US President Donald Trump revealed to Axios that the chances of securing a diplomatic agreement or launching a massive military campaign are split right down the middle.
"I think one of two things will happen: either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good," Trump stated. Describing the situation as a "solid 50/50," he warned that if an agreement cannot be reached, he is prepared to "blow them to kingdom come."
High-Stakes Meetings in Washington
The president is scheduled to meet with his top negotiating team later on Saturday to review Iran's latest proposal. The high-level session will include his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside Vice President JD Vance.
This crucial review comes directly after intense mediation efforts led by Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir. Munir departed Tehran on Saturday following meetings with senior Iranian officials to push the agreement across the finish line. While a final deal has not yet been locked in, Pakistani officials reported "encouraging progress toward a final understanding," which formed the basis of the new draft Trump is reviewing.
What is Inside the Proposed Agreement?
According to Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, Washington and Tehran are currently in the final stages of discussing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to bring an end to the active warfare.
The Iranian spokesperson outlined that the proposed MOU addresses several major issues:
- A gradual reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz
- The lifting of the United States naval blockade
- The release of frozen Iranian financial assets
If signed, this preliminary memorandum would trigger a 30-to-60-day window for both nations to negotiate a more detailed, long-term agreement.
The Core Stumbling Blocks
Despite the diplomatic momentum, significant hurdles remain. President Trump made it clear that any acceptable deal must comprehensively address Iran's nuclear capabilities, specifically its uranium enrichment programs and the ultimate fate of its current nuclear stockpile.
However, resolving these deeply entrenched issues in detail during this initial phase remains highly unlikely under the current framework. Recognizing the high stakes, regional mediators from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have been working around the clock over the last 24 hours to bridge the remaining gaps, maintaining constant communication with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.
Confirming the fluid state of the negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted on Saturday that there has been "some progress" and hinted that "there might be some news later today." Rubio reiterated the firm American stance that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon, must surrender its enriched uranium, and that the Strait of Hormuz must be fully reopened "without tolls."
Netanyahu's Reaction and Internal Debates
The impending decision has sparked mixed reactions both at home and abroad. Trump acknowledged the internal friction, noting, "Some people would much rather have a deal and others would rather resume the war."
The president dismissed claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is anxious about Washington making an unfavorable deal, describing Netanyahu instead as "torn." However, Israeli officials indicate that the prime minister remains deeply concerned about the current terms under discussion and has actively urged President Trump to launch another round of military strikes rather than signing the memorandum.
Published By : Garvit Parashar
Published On: 23 May 2026 at 22:15 IST