Afghanistan fell due to Ashraf Ghani's failure to recognise US' intention, says report

The collapse of Kabul occurred due to the US-backed now-defunct government of ex-Afghan leader Ashraf Ghani's failure to recognize that the United States was planning a total withdrawal from the conflict-ridden nation, a new report published by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) revealed on Thursday, Nov 17. Afghan government failed to identify that the United States would actually leave the South Asian country.

Over nearly 20 years and three US presidencies, the United States had vacillated on the issue of military withdrawal, the SIGAR report stressed. And even when the United States officially expressed its desire to exit Afghanistan in the years leading up to its departure, SIGAR's investigation found that the contradictory messaging by US military officials undermined efforts to convey the seriousness of US intentions. 

Miscalculation about US drawdown leading factor for collapse

The Afghan government's miscalculation about the US drawdown was one of the leading factors that contributed to the siege of Kabul by the Taliban, and subsequently the collapse of the Ghani administration. The US-backed government of Ashraf Ghani was ruling the war-torn nation with a “highly selective, narrow circle of loyalists,” and that lead to the destabilization of the government, SIGAR stated. Even at the outset of his first term in 2014, Ghani—a former World Bank official who was popular among the international community had assumed a tough, assertive, and undiplomatic tone towards the Taliban. 

Among other factors that contributed to the downfall of Ghani's empire were excessive centralization, endemic corruption, and the struggle to achieve legitimacy. Afghan government's exclusion from US-Taliban talks "weakened and undermined" the entire political system. Before the Afghan government’s collapse in August 2021, the primary US goal in Afghanistan was achieving a sustainable political settlement that would bring lasting peace and stability. But that failed. Taliban’s refusal to talk to the Afghan government without first negotiating with the US proved to be an obstacle and later contributed to the political ruckus within the occupied territory. Another reason for the collapse of the Afghan government was that the Afghan government insisted that the Taliban should be integrated into the Republic, which made any progress on peace negotiations later difficult. 

"Ghani’s isolation and tendency toward micromanagement actually caused the collapse of his government is difficult to discern in a complex political environment," SUGAR noted. 

The United States allocated an estimated $145 billion for the reconstruction of the war-ravaged Afghanistan as of June 2021, including $36.3 billion for governance, and social and economic development. But the government dissolved when Ghani fled the country as the Taliban advanced rapidly, taking over the nation following the US-led NATO troop withdrawal. SIGAR also identified whether US objectives in Afghanistan were achieved. "The United States sought—but failed—to achieve its goal of building stable, democratic, representative, gender-sensitive, and accountable Afghan governance institutions," it concluded. While the residual elements of the Afghan government still exist and are functioning, their sustainability is uncertain, the report added.