India-US Trade Deal Likely Before July 9; Larger Deal Likely When Trump Visits India In November

India and the United States are close to finalising an interim trade agreement that could be announced as early as this weekend or by Monday, with a broader deal potentially taking shape later this year.

According to Mukesh Aghi, President and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF), the current negotiations are aimed at securing a “limited deal” covering tariff reductions on thousands of items, ahead of a more comprehensive pact expected during former US President Donald Trump’s visit to India in November.

“You have to understand the discussions at the moment are on an interim trade deal. It is not the final trade deal,” Aghi told Republic TV in an exclusive interview. He went on to add, “So you will have two tranches of deals—the government is trying to close the first now. The second version is expected by the end of this year.”

The interim agreement reportedly covers around 6,000 items, with the focus on lowering tariffs on both sides. Aghi noted that a minimum reciprocal tariff of 10% is likely, though the final terms may vary. "The scale could be higher," he said, suggesting the announcement could happen any time— “just like the deal with Vietnam was announced yesterday.”

He also pointed out that July 9 marks the end of a 90-day reprieve granted since April, making it a likely deadline for the interim announcement. “Our estimate is the deal could happen before July 9,” Aghi added.

Agriculture, Dairy may remain off-limits

While both sides are eager to move forward on trade liberalisation, Aghi made it clear that agriculture and dairy remain non-negotiable for India.

“Behind the scenes, there is a lot of pressure to open up agriculture, dairy. But that is not possible. Those are red lines for the government,” he said. “You have 60% of the (Indian) population working on farms. You can’t basically open that.”

He further noted that dairy is intertwined with religious and cultural sensitivities. “Dairy is a religious issue. Because cows are fed here. Meat and other aspects are non-vegetarian, which are not healthy from a religious perspective,” reasoned Aghi.

Despite these limitations, Aghi praised the Indian government’s balancing act. “I think the Modi administration has done a fantastic job trying to support these things,” he said, describing the trade talks as involving "blood, sweat and tears" behind the scenes to arrive at a deal that works for both nations.

Also Read: India-US Trade Deal: Agriculture Likely To Be Exempted From Tariffs, Interim Deal Expected By July 8 | Republic World

Strategic timing

The current push for a phased deal reflects the urgency on both sides to strengthen economic ties amid shifting geopolitical alignments. For India, the interim agreement could help boost investor confidence and expand market access for exporters. For the US, it signals deeper engagement in the Indo-Pacific.

With Trump expected to visit India later this year, negotiators appear to be laying the groundwork for a broader agreement that could encompass regulatory alignments, digital trade, and services.

For now, all eyes are on whether the interim deal is sealed in the coming days—potentially marking a key milestone in India-US trade relations.