Republic Double Exit Poll for Rajasthan: BJP projected to bounce right back from assembly polls setback, Congress likely to lose heavily in 2019 Lok Sabha elections say CVoter and Jan Ki Baat

As the polling in the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - the largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in the world - has officially come to an end, the countdown for the deciding-day - May 23  has begun, when the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections will finally be declared. While India is on the threshold of welcoming a new government, the Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

An estimated 900 million citizens voted in thousands of polling booths in every corner of the country in the 39 days-long voting process. Vote-counting will be held for 542 seats in the Lower House of India's Parliament (Vellore in Tamil Nadu stands countermanded) and the country awaits with the crucial numbers regarding the composition of the 17th Lok Sabha.

While the exact numbers will be declared on May 23, Republic Media Network presents mega double exit poll a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India, and put together, project whether the BJP and NDA will be able to repeat their historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low. The projections are made after conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across the country following each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls.

Projection for Rajasthan (Total 25 seats):

Both the CVoter and Jan Ki Baat exit polls predict that BJP will emerge victorious in the state. While Jan Ki Baat projects that the BJP will win between 19 and 23 seats in the state, CVoter projects 22 as the number that will go in NDA's favour in the state. 

CVoter:

Seat-share projection: 

NDA: 22 seats

UPA: 3 seat

CVoter vote-share projection:

NDA: 56.6 per cent

UPA: 33.7 per cent

Jan Ki Baat: 

Seat-share projection:

BJP: 19-23 seats
 
INC: 3-6 seats

C Voter has predicted that the NDA will win 22 seats in the state which can be called a moral setback for the party as it swept the state in last the Lok Sabha elections, while it has also predicted that UPA 3 seats in the state. Jan Ki Baat has predicted that the NDA will get 19 to 23 seats in the state while the Congress will get 3 to 6 seats in the state.  If the predicted numbers prove to be true on May 23, it can be termed as a clarion call by the people against the four months of Ashok Gehlot government in the state.

Political scenario in the state: 

A BJP bastion where the party won all the 25 seats in 2014 but lost to the Congress party in this year's assembly polls. While the Congress will no doubt be looking to carry forward its momentum, BJP says that people will give an answer to the false promises of the Congress party during the assembly election campaign. In 2014, BJP registered victory over all the 25 seats in the state. Rajasthan has been a BJP stronghold as it has been winning the state since 1999 Lok Sabha polls except in 2009 when the Congress party won 20 seats, BJP won 4 seats and the remaining 1 seat was won by an Independent. In 2018 assembly polls, owing to anti-incumbency against the Vasundhara Raje government, BJP faced defeat but gave a tough fight to the Congress who is ruling the state assembly under Ashok Gehlot. 

These are the key contest in the state:

1. Jodhpur: Senior Congress leader and Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot's son Vaibhav Gehlot has been fielded against BJP's Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in Jodhpur Lok Sabha constituency. This is a prestige battle if ever there was one and also, somewhat of a verdict on the senior Gehlot's four months at the helm of the state. 
    
2. Jaipur Rural: An interesting electoral contest is on the cards in Rajasthan’s Jaipur Rural constituency where two Olympians — BJP’s Col Rajyavardhan Rathore and Congress’ Krishna Poonia — will face each other in the Lok Sabha polls. Col Rathore is the sitting MP.
    
3. Barmer: In Barmer Lok Sabha constituency, Congress' Manavendra Singh who is the son of former BJP stalwart, Jaswant Singh is pitted against BJP's Kailash Chaudhary. While Manavendra has face value amidst the people of the constituency, BJP has fielded Chaudhary to woo the Jat population in their favour in the constituency. the Balakot airstrikes factor impacts voting in the region. Barmer shares a border with Pakistan in the West and Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman’s banners have been seen in Kailash Chaudhary’s rallies.
    
4. Jalore: South of Barmer, Jalore seat has elected an outsider as their Parliamentarian, a record 11 times — highest in the state. However, Devji Mansinghram Patel, a local, has been elected to Parliament from Jalore twice, in 2009 and 2014, and is in the fray for a third term. He is up against Congress candidate Ratan Devasi. Congress has fielded Ratan Devasi, former MLA from Raniwara (2008), who has twice lost to BJP’s Narayan Singh Dewal in 2013 and 2018 Assembly polls. The vote margin was over 32,000 in 2013. It got reduced to about 3,400 votes in 2018, nearly 10 per cent of the previous gap.
    
5. Udaipur: Despite anti-incumbency against Raje government, the southern region of the state voted in BJP’s favour. In Lok Sabha elections, cousins Arjunlal Meena, BJP’s sitting MP, and Raghuveer Meena, the Congress candidate, are up against each other for a second time. BJP retains the upper hand in the region but Congress’ appeal to Meenas. In 2014, Arjunlal had defeated Raghuveer by 236,762 (19.84%) votes. However, Udaipur seat has not elected a parliamentarian from the same party it voted for in previous Lok Sabha elections since 1996. The seat has been alternating between Congress and BJP candidates for 23 years. It remains to be seen if the constituency breaks its own pattern.

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How the state voted: 

Phase 4 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 64.48 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 68.17 percent

Phase 5 voter turnout comparison

2014 Lok Sabha elections: 61.61 percent

2019 Lok Sabha elections: 63.72 percent

The Lok Sabha election stretched for more than one month saw heated campaigning from all parties. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seeking a second term in the office, addressed a total of 144 rallies and roadshows this election season, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed 125 rallies in the 2019 polls with the elections also marking the entry of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as an official member of the Congress.

In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, there were controversies galore over the course of the polls, ranging from poll violence being witnessed in each of the 7 phases of voting in Bengal, to some shocking statements from leaders across parties, with the likes of Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and others being struck down on by the Election Commission, and others, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outrage. 

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set the agenda for the polls, including the first interview of the Prime Minister's election campaign to Republic's Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his final campaign interview to Executive Editor Abhishek Kapoor. Alongside these were the sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed themselves willing to compromise the interests of those whom they claim to represent, the Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed the falsehood in the Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous others.

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections here.

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