Updated 28 May 2024 at 16:46 IST
New Delhi: As the Lok Sabha election enters the final phase of polling, many predictions have surfaced on who will form the government at the Centre. Will it be PM Narendra Modi-led NDA again, or the INDI alliance of the opposition parties?
Well, the most perfect prediction can be drawn from who will sweep all the Delhi Lok Sabha seats.
The result of national capital seats serves as a significant predictor of the nationwide Lok Sabha election outcome, and it's historically proven that whichever party wins majority seats in Delhi forms government at the Centre.
The analysis of Lok Sabha election results since independence indicates that Delhi has gone wrong only thrice, in 1967, 1989, and 1991 polls as the party that bagged maximum seats in the national capital didn't form government at the Centre.
The national capital witnessed Congress sealing all seven seats thrice in 1971, 1984 and 2009. The BJP has swept all seven seats in 1999, 2014 and 2019.
In the first Lok Sabha election that India carried out, there were just three Lok Sabha constituencies in Delhi — two single-member seats and one double-member seat. Congress bagged all three of them and also formed the first Union government. In the second Lok Sabha election in 1957, the number of seats increased to four, and all were bagged by the Congress.
By 1962, the number of Lok Sabha seats in Delhi increased to five, and Congress swept through all five seats. Both in 1957 and 1962, Congress retained its government, and Jawaharlal Nehru formed the government at the Centre for three consecutive terms.
In 1967, the number of Lok Sabha seats in Delhi increased to seven, and Bharatiya Jana Sangh won six seats, while Congress retained only one seat. Although the Congress formed the government at the Centre, it was the first time that it faced significant opposition in Parliament. 1967 marked the year that shook Congress’s unquestioned dominance in Indian politics.
In 1971, Congress again bagged all seven seats in Delhi and retained power at the Centre. In 1977, due to the anti-emergency wave, Congress lost all seven seats to the then Bharatiya Lok Dal, and for the first time, a non-Congress government headed by Morarji Desai was formed at the Centre.
However, in 1980, Congress improved its performance by winning six out of seven seats and ruled at the Centre. In 1984, riding on a sympathy wave after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, Congress won all seven seats in Delhi, and Rajiv Gandhi became the Prime Minister.
With the backdrop of the Bofors scam in 1989, the BJP won four seats while Congress could win only two seats. 1989 marked the emergence of BJP as a major opposition party. A non-Congress government headed by V.P. Singh came to power at the Centre, with outside support from BJP and the Left.
In 1991, Congress managed to win only two seats in Delhi, while the BJP won five seats. However, Congress's Narasimha Rao formed a minority government. In 1996, Congress failed to improve its performance, winning two seats in Delhi for three consecutive elections. On the other hand, the BJP won five seats out of seven in Delhi, with Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP forming the government at the Centre, only to resign 13 days later, yielding to Deve Gowda of Janata Dal and a United Front coalition government.
Congress continued its losing streak in Delhi when it won only one seat in 1998, while the BJP won six seats, with Atal Bihari Vajpayee forming the government at the Centre. In 1999, the BJP swept through all seven seats in Delhi, retaining its rule at the Centre.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha election, Congress emerged as the single largest party in Delhi, winning six out of seven seats and coming back to power at the Centre. In 2009, Congress swept through all seven seats in Delhi and retained its government at the Centre for another term.
However, in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP snatched all seven seats from Congress under the Modi wave, and Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister. The feat was repeated in 2019 when the BJP won seven seats in Delhi, securing another term at the Centre.
Published 28 May 2024 at 16:32 IST