Will Vijay Emerge To Be Tamil Nadu's Next MGR? Exit Polls Predict Surprise Challenger
The Axis My India exit poll has predicted 98–120 seats for TVK in the 234-member Assembly, bringing it as close as the ruling DMK alliance. The survey has also predicted a 35 per cent vote share for the TVK, which clearly brings it at par with the Stalin-led ruling party.
- Election News
- 4 min read
Chennai: The Tamil Nadu exit polls have predicted a stunner for actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, placing it at par with the DMK-led alliance in the state, indicating that the political debutante has clearly come out of the shadow of being a vote-cutter, and may have emerged to be a clear contender, at part with the key Dravidian parties in the state.
The Axis My India exit poll has predicted 98–120 seats for TVK in the 234-member Assembly, bringing it as close as the ruling DMK alliance. The survey has also predicted a 35 per cent vote share for the TVK, which clearly brings it at par with the Stalin-led ruling party. The AIADMK-BJP alliance, which has so far dominated the state's political canvas, as an alternative to the DMK, is predicted to win only 23 per cent votes.
While exit poll predictions have often faltered across multiple states, if these projections come true, the TVK could emerge as the largest party in Tamil Nadu, and can potentially come out to be a king-maker, if there is a fractured mandate.
The Axis My India exit poll has predicted 92-110 seats for the DMK-led alliance, the NDA at 22-23.
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What's Behind This Dramatic Rise
Data from the Axis My India survey has pointed out that young voters may have played a divisive role in TVK's electoral rise. A breakdown of the survey show that 68% of first-time voters (18–19) may have voted for the TVK. 59% of those aged 20-29 may have voted for the Vijay-led party, and 45% in the 30–39 age bracket. Interestingly, no other party has come to the TVK across these segments.
The Narrative Of Change
Vijay's central pitch of bringing about a change in Tamil Nadu, where politics have usually centred around Dravidian identity and welfarism, seems to have done the trick. According to the survey, around 35% of voters may have been drawn towards the TVK for this promise.
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The Charisma
Vijay’s personal appeal may have played a big role in possibly bringing about such a phenomenal outcome. A large section of voters may have backed him only because of this factor, suggesting a return to personality-driven politics that seems to be dominating Indian politics at a macro-level.
Cutting Across Caste And Class
While the conventional Dravidian parties have largely drawn various caste groups by stitching alliances with various regional political outfits that bring in their caste votes, TVK has not rallied behind any of these combinations and have given his party an all-caste identity. This may have helped him to attract a significant section of OBC and SC votes, along with minority voters, in urban as well as rural segments.
Chief Minister Candidate
The Axis My India poll has also projected Vijay to be the most preferred choice among voters to be the Chief Ministerial candidate, receiving as much as 37% support, even ahead of Stalin, who enjoys 35% support. This may be a remarkable outcome for a political debutante.
Here's What It Means For Tamil Nadu
The political rise of TVK, as indicated in this exit poll survey, can be seen as a historic break in the bipolar Dravidian politics that have dominated Tamil Nadu's discourse for decades, with no major national party even closely managing to break their strongholds.
Vijay's rise seems to indicate that the DMK may be up for a new challenger. Moreover, the AIADMK seems to have lost a lot of its political footprint.
While Tamil Nadu has a history of defying several exit poll predictions, if the Axis My India's predictions come correct, Vijay can no longer be described as a political entrant, but a seasoned challenger.
For the uninitiated, Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, was a veteran actor, director and film producer, who ventured into Tamil Nadu politics, and went on to serve as its chief minister from 1977 till 1987. While Rajnikanth and Kamal Hasan are some popular male actors who have also entered the political canvas in the southern state, their electoral footprint has not been as extensive as Vijay's is predicted to be.