Kumaraswamy has reason to worry: How JD(S) ended up being the biggest loser in Karnataka

The Karnataka elections 2023 has come up as a major setback for HD Kumaraswamy's Janata Dal (Secular), which appears to be winning only 19 seats in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly. The party, which was aiming to secure a win in 123 constituencies and more, has not even managed to win 23 seats in the state. On the other hand, the Congress has secured a clear mandate. Election Commission trends show much of what used to be JD(S) vote share has now moved to the Congress. 

Congress party has won 134 seats and is leading in two more. The Bharatiya Janata Party has won 64 seats and is leading in one more seat. In Karnataka, a party needs 113 seats for majority. 

JD(S) loss was Congress' gain!

As per the data, the Congress has managed to increase its vote share percentage by 5 percentage points as compared to 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections. The party has got a vote share of around 43 percent of the total votes polled in the state. This is 5 percent points more than the party's percentage of vote share in 2018, which was 38.14 percent. The JD(S) has managed to get only 13.33 percent vote share this time, 5 percent less than what the party had secured in the 2018 state assembly polls. In 2018 the JD(S) got 18.3 percent vote share.  

Whereas, the BJP’s vote share has not changed much in comparison to last assembly elections. As per data, the BJP has got around 36 percent votes and it remains approximately the same as compared to the party's vote share in 2018. 

Factors that led to JD(S) loss

The Janata Dal (Secular) has not managed to gain a majority in the Karnataka Assembly, even since its formation in the year 1999. However, the party has been part of the coalition governments in the state for a few times. Not only this, despite being the third-largest party in the state in 2018 and seats half less than that of Congress, HD Kumaraswamy was sworn in as the chief minister of Karnataka with the support of the Congress. 

This year, the party was aiming at bigger political achievement and had set a target to win over 123 seats. The party sought votes by repeatedly invoking regional Kannadiga pride and asserting itself to be the only Kannadiga party. According to the data, in the last five elections that JDS has contested it has never crossed 58 seats.

This year, it was expected that the party would emerge as the kingmaker in Karnataka, if not turn up as the biggest political party in the assembly elections. But, after the 2023 results, the party seems to have become a fringe outfit in the state's politics. Moreover, the party's defeat in the Old Mysuru region has put a question mark over its presence in its strongest constituency.

Karnataka Assembly poll result has pointed out at the party losing its grip over the Vokkaliga community that dominates the Old Mysuru region.