What Republic Exit Polls Predicted For 4 Swing States Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha

New Delhi: As the polling for the last leg of the marathon 2024 Lok Sabha Elections came to an end on June 1, the Exit Polls have predicted another term for the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a thumping victory. While the 'Abki Bar 400 Paar' target may not be within reach, PM Modi’s leadership appears to have outshined the Opposition’s bloc and steered the coalition towards an emphatic victory, with most exit polls predicting a formidable tally of 350+ seats.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is all set to secure 364 seats while the INDI Alliance will likely to settle at 139 seats with others securing around 40 seats out of the total 543 seats in Lok Sabha, according to Republic's projection for the 2024 general elections based on exit poll results from Matrize and P-MARQ.

Exit Polls Predicted Sweeping Victory For BJP-led NDA

Republic-PMARQ and Matrize have predicted a landslide victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA, with projections indicating a sweeping win of 353-369 seats.

Just two days ahead of counting of votes for Lok Sabha Elections 2024 on June 4, Republic TV on Saturday hosted the most extensive post-election double survey with P-MARQ and Matrize exit poll results, delivering the most precise forecast in terms of voting percentage and seat-distribution for the 543-member Lok Sabha.

The NDA, Republic-PMARQ exit poll results suggest, will register a resounding victory with 359 seats while the Congress-led INDI alliance is projected to trail at 154 seats with the rest of the parties settling in as many as 30 seats in the lower house of Parliament, voting for which concluded with the seventh and the last phase of polling today.

According to Republic-Matrize exit poll results, the NDA is projected to win 368 seats while the INDI bloc will only be able to manage 125 seats with others settling at around 50 seats.

The results indicate that the BJP has not just consolidated its position in states they were strong but also made inroads in states they were not traditionally good at. Exit polls are based on a sample survey with a plus-minus 3% margin of error.

PMARQ Seat Prediction

NDA: 359 (+20)
BJP: 316 (+20)
Other NDA parties: 43 (+10)
INDI Alliance: 154 (+15)
Other INDI Alliance parties: 88 (+15)
INC: 66 (+12)
Others: 30 (+10)

As the BJP-led NDA is predicted to regain power at the Centre once again, let’s look at the Republic Exit Polls predictions for 4 swing states including Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha.

Exit Polls For Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, Republic PMARQ Exit Poll and MATRIZE Exit Poll Predictions, both have given a clear majority to the BJP-led NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. Even after 10 years of rule at the Centre, the ruling NDA appears to have pulled maximum number of seats for the alliance to comfortably regain power for the third-consecutive term under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Of 48 seats in Maharashtra, Republic PMARQ Exit Poll has predicted 29 seats for the NDA, while it has given 19 seats to the INDI Alliance.

MATRIZE Exit Poll, on the other hand, has given 30-36 seats to the NDA, 13-19 seats to the INDI Alliance, while it has given no seats to others, out of 48 seats.

Party-wise predictions have shown that the ruling BJP on its own is likely to get 22-26 seats, while its allies are likely to get 2-8 seats. Among INDI Alliance, the Congress party is predicted to get 2-5 seats, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) likely to get 7-11 seats, and NCP (Sharad Pawar) is likely to get anywhere between 5-9 seats. Republic PMARQ has given 1 seat to the other parties in the INDI Alliance.

Exit Poll For West Bengal

Ahead of the results on June 4, the Exit Polls have come as a nightmare for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, as the BJP is expected to better its 2019 performance in the state with both pollsters, Republic PMARQ and Matrize Exit Polls, projecting the ruling party at the Centre to be the number one party in the Mamata Banerjee-ruled state.

While PMARQ made a conservative estimate of 22 seats for BJP out of 42 seats, Matrize predicted that the saffron party might touch 25. Notably, if the Exit Polls convert to results in June, this will be the first time that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be taking over the TMC after Mamata Banerjee came to power in West Bengal back in 2011. The prediction is also being considered as an alarm for the state-ruling party ahead of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections.

In 2019, BJP's performance in Bengal had come as a surprise in Lok Sabha elections as the party surpassed all poll predictions and secured 18 out of 42 seats, managing to gain 16 seats.

Matrize has predicted that BJP's vote-share is slated to grow by over 3 per cent taking the total vote share percentage to 43.8 per cent, while the TMC's vote-share is projected to go down by over 1 per cent.

Exit Poll Results for Bihar

The BJP-led NDA that swept through Bihar in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will achieve a similar feat in the 2024 elections with 37 seats out of 40 in the state, predicted the Republic PMARQ exit polls. The poll result prediction hinted that Congress will improve its number by winning three seats as it secured just one in the last elections.  

According to Republic PMARQ Exit Polls prediction, the NDA comprising of the BJP, the Janata Dal United (JDU) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is likely to win 37 seats in Bihar, while the Opposition including the Congress is likely to improve its tally with predicted win on 3 seats from 1.

Exit Polls Predictions For Odisha

Republic PMARQ Exit Poll for Odisha has predicted 14 seats for the BJP-led alliance, while it has given 8 seats to the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led alliance. The BJP seems to be making a spirited effort to breach the bastion with its national vice-president Baijayant Panda.

Republic Matrize Exit Poll, on the other hand, has predicted 11 seats for the BJP-led NDA in Odisha. The pollster on the contrary has given 9 seats to the BJD. While the Congress is projected to be securing only 1 seat.