Big BJP surge in Northeast a sign of the times, bigger states on radar now

A couple of hours after the postal ballots were counted and the electronic voting machines started to reveal the trends in the three northeastern states of Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya, it became clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is strengthening its roots in the region. A marginal player in the eight northeastern states until a few years ago, the saffron party has made big strides since Prime Minister Narendra Modi powered the party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to power at the Centre in 2014. Since then several northeastern states have come under the rule of the BJP and its allies. 

The counting for the high-voltage 2023 elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura have sent out a clear signal the politics in the region will now revolve around the BJP with the Congress, the primary opposition party now an also-ran. The election results, going in favour of the BJP and its allies, will decide the direction of the wind with more states across India gearing up for assembly elections later in 2023. 

The strong grip of the BJP in the northeastern state will also play a pivotal role in the upcoming elections in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh among others. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP government lost in the 2018 elections.

Bhupesh Baghel became the successor to BJP's Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh and Kamal Nath took over as the Madhya Pradesh chief minister from BJP's Shivraj Singh Chouhan in MP. However, the BJP managed to topple the Congress in MP in 2020 and regained power. 

The Congress is in power in Rajasthan, a state where the BJP is hoping to make a comeback in the next assembly election. Rajasthan along with Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will go to polls by the end of 2023. Karnataka has a BJP government and the state will elect a new Assembly by mid-2023.

The performance of the saffron party in the northeastern state will again become a major highlight in the state assembly elections as a confident BJP goes all out to sweep aside the opposition.

Currently, more than 17 states are ruled by the BJP-led NDA and the numbers grew after Narendra Modi took over as Prime Minister.

BJP's strong position in the northeast

The BJP and its ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura unseated the 25-year-old CPI(M) government in Tripura and turned the Left bastion into a saffron one in 2018. The notable shift in political discourse took place four years after PM Modi took over the Centre and Tripura BJP worked on the ground to dethrone Left Front which had 51 members in the 60-member Tripura Assembly. In the 2023 elections too, the BJP alliance has maintained a strong position, enough to retain power. 

In Nagaland, the BJP and Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party, the ruling coalition, is again set to make a comeback. Meghalaya is heading towards a hung Assembly. However, Assam CM Hemanta Biswa Sarma has indicated that BJP will join hands with the regional parties to form the government, as and when required. 

The Congress, which used to dominate the northeastern states, has been almost wiped out from the electoral map while the other contenders have not been able to make much of a mark.