While BJP is projected to sweep the State Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, the Congress and its allies in both states are faced with severe political decay as BJP continues to consolidate its foothold in these states. The Republic TV - Jan Ki Baat poll has predicted many historical firsts which pushes Congress and its allies into a diminished presence in the states. The results will be announced on October 24.
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Historic firsts this Assembly polls
- Highest Seat-vote share for BJP: The saffron party is projected to get 56% of the vote share in Haryana and 33% of the vote share in Maharashtra. The projected BJP seat share of 138 seats in the state of Maharashtra is also the highest ever seat share by any party. The BJP is projected to almost reach the halfway mark on its own, needing only single-digit seat assistance by the Sena to form a government.
- First consecutive win for BJP in Haryana: The BJP is set to win more seats than the previous Assembly polls in 2014 in both seats. But in Harayana BJP is projected to win 52-63 seats, the Congress is left far behind likely to win only 15-19 seats. This will give it a historic win and award CM Manohar Lal Khattar a second term.
- Historic best for Sena: While BJP continues to grow in Maharashtra, the Sena too is projected to get 24% of the vote share and is projected to win 81-88 seats, which is a personal best for it.
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Congress and Allies decay
- Congress and NCP's lowest ever tally: In Maharashtra, the Congress is slated to touch historic new lows by getting a projected 23 seats. Meanwhile, its Sharad Pawar-led ally NCP is projected to get 32 seats. This brings it to a new low of 32 seats.
- INLDs historic loss: The Chautala led INLD is projected to get anywhere between 0 to 1 seat in Haryana, taking it to it's lowest ever performance since 2005 when it got just 9 seats.
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Region-wise exit polls:
While the BJP is set to more or less maintain its seats in the regions of Ambala, Karnal, Mahendergarh, and Rohtak, it also set to gain tremendously in the regions of Hisar and Faridabad as compared to previous Assembly polls. In Ambala BJP is set to maintain seat share of 12 seats, Karnal - 8 seats, Rohtak - 8 seats and Mahendergarh - 10 seats. Meanwhile, it will erode into the Congress and INLD's seat share in Hisar gaining to 10 seats from 4 seats and in Faridabad, it will increase its tally upto 10 seats from 3 seats.
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While the BJP is set to more or less maintain its seats in Amravati and Aurangabad, it is set to gain more seats in Nashik, Nagpur, Konkan, and Pune area. In Amravati, BJP is set to maintain 18 seats while in Aurangabad it will maintain 15 seats. Meanwhile, it will erode into Congress-NCP's tally in Nashik increasing its tally to 21 from 19 seats, in Nagpur, it will add to its tally from 26 to 29 seats. It will also gain in the Konkan area from 25 to 30 seats in 2019 and it will also gain seats in Pune from 19 to 25 seats. Notably, it will eat up some of Sena seats itself due to its higher seat share according to its pre-poll alliance in Maharashtra.
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