Graph shows the trend of India's Covid cases versus what may have been but for measures

As India entered its fourth week of a nationwide lockdown, aimed at curbing the spread of the COVID-19 infection that has no cure yet, new cases continue to be reported. According to the average data analysed for states with regards to the confirmed Coronavirus cases, the growth rate is on the rise in the last few days. 

However, the number of cases has been doubling every 10 days instead of every three days — which would have been the situation before the lockdown, according to mathematical modelling posted by Shamika Ravi, a senior fellow at Brookings Institute, India centre, and a former member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council.

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According to the average data analysed for states with 150+ confirm Coronavirus cases, the growth rate is on the decline in the last few days. The total number of coronavirus cases in India on Tuesday morning stood at 19,984. More than 3,869 people have recovered from COVID-19 so far while 640 people have died. In the past 24 hours, around 50 deaths and 1383 new cases have been reported.

Ravi has been posting daily updates on the rate of COVID-19 infection in India, and her analysis over the weeks has shown several trends.

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Health Ministry on India's doubling rate of COVID-19

Earlier on Monday, India's doubling rate of COVID-19 — the number of days in which cases double — has improved to 7.5 due to lockdown, as against 3.4 before the nationwide lockdown, the Union Health Ministry said. The rate of recovery of COVID-19 patients in the country has also improved to 14.75%, even as the rate of increase in fresh positive cases has jumped.

"We calculate the doubling rate of cases at regular intervals. When we calculated it based on the data of the last seven days, we found that India's doubling rate which was 3.4 before lockdown has now improved to 7.5. Another good news is that 18 States have a better rate than the national average," joint secretary for Health, Lav Aggarwal, told reporters in a press briefing.

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READ | COVID-19: India's Doubling Rate Improves To 7.5 Post Lockdown; Recovery Rate At 14.75%