'Caste census is going to be a huge determinant in this elections', said Abhishek Sudhir, Advocate & Political Analyst, adding that BJP does not listen to the OBCs, the backward classes.
"Opinion polls are sometimes correct, sometimes wrong," says Adv. Waris Pathan, National Spokesperson & Former MLA, AIMIM, citing West Bengal elections. He added, "CM Yogi is not sure of his own victory sometimes he says I am contesting from Ayodhya, sometimes Ayodhya, and now he is fighting from Gorakhpur on the directions of PM Modi.
"In every election, the BSP's vote is intact, you cannot divide it, " says Congress leader Ratnakar Tripathi as Opinion Poll predicts BJP's win in 2022 assembly poll
"BJP has been able to go to the grassroots in Uttar Pradesh. We have an established base", says SudhanshuTrivedi, MP, Rajya Sabha & National Spokesperson, BJP.
The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election. There is error margin of 3%.
The Chief Minister Yogi Adityanth-led BJP+ is likely to retain power with the party projected to win 252-272 seats in the 403-member Assembly. On the other hand, Samajwadi Party+ is looking to bag 111-131 seats. Other parties are likely to have small gains. BSP is likely to bag 8 - 16, Congress 3-9 and others 0-4 seats.
Read elaborate predictions on Uttar Pradesh here
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Tune in to watch the projections here -
The latest pre-poll survey conducted by Republic in association with PMarq has projected 16-20 seats for the BJP while the Congress may end up winning 9-13 seats. For the AAP, PMarq has projected 4-8 seats while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is predicted to secure 1-5 seats.
Read elaborate predictions on Goa here
The BJP is projected to stay ahead in the race as the poll shows BJP bagging the most 31-37 seats out of 60 seats followed by the Indian National Congress winning 13-19 seats. The National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) are predicted to remain behind INC with 2-9 and 1-5 seats respectively.
Read elaborate predictions on Manipur here
With its 117 seats, Punjab goes to the polls on February 20, and results of the same will be announced on March 10. Of the number of parties in fray like Bharatiya Janata Party, Congress, Punjab Lok Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal, Aam Aadmi Party, the Opinion Poll has made a promising projection for AAP.
For Punjab, which goes to the polls in a month, the Opinion Poll projects that AAP may bag 50-56 seats (37.8 %) of the total 117 seats, Congress 42-48 seats (35%), SAD 13 to 17 seats (15.8%), BJP 1-3 seats (5.7%) and others 1-3 seats (5.6%).
Read elaborate predictions on Punjab here
The Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP is likely to retain power with the party projected to win 36-42 seats in the 70-member Assembly. On the other hand, Congress is likely to see major gains. The grand old party is projected to win 25-31 seats, while debutant AAP can win 0-2 seats. The other parties and independents are likely to win 1-3 seats.
Read elaborate predictions on Uttarakhand here
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Manipur CM N. Biren Singh speaks to Arnab as opinion poll projects a clean sweep for BJP in the state. Tune in to watch the projections here -
'Will win with big margin': Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami is LIVE with Arnab as Republic- P MARQ opinion poll projects an edge to BJP.
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You can also catch the cast LIVE on https://www.republicworld.com/livetv.html or
#March10WithArnab | As the battle for elections in 5 states intensifies, Republic TV and P MARQ gets you the biggest opinion poll.— Republic (@republic) January 17, 2022
Tune in to Republic TV today at 7 PM to watch the most accurate predictions with Arnab and team. Stay tuned here - https://t.co/3AdouQWfxw pic.twitter.com/MiNqc3EwQx
With the most expansive sample size, most studied arithmetic calculations, a deep study of on-ground sentiment, and a thorough factoring in of the 360-degree impact of political campaigns, the Republic-P Marq Opinion Poll is set to deliver the most accurate predictions across the 5 states going to polls.
The Poll will also present multiple snap scenario analyses’ in the case and the impact thereof if there is a percentage shift in a vote based on certain factors. In addition, the electorate’s Opinion on critical issue-based questions will also be beamed as part of the Opinion Poll.
With less than a month to go for assembly elections in the five states, India’s Election HQ Republic has tied up with P-Marq to present before you the most studied, accurate, and on-point snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa.
The Opinion Poll will be anchored by Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami and his senior team on Republic TV and by the senior-most anchors on Republic Bharat in a marathon prime time to super prime time broadcast on Monday evening.
The much-awaited Republic-P Marq Opinion Poll will be aired live on Republic TV and Republic Bharat on Monday, 17 January 2022 at 7 pm. You can also catch the cast LIVE on https://www.republicworld.com/livetv.html or
To prevent the spread of Covid-19, the election body has laid down protocols to hold polls in these states. Let's take a look at the key measures that have been put in place:
A total of 18.34 crore electors including service voters will take part in the upcoming Assembly elections in Goa, Punjab, Manipur, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh, as per the ECI. While addressing a press conference here Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sushil Chandra said, "A total of 18.34 crore electors including service voters will take part in this election, of which 24.9 lakh first-time electors."
There are 690 Assembly seats but we are setting up 1620 such polling booths," the CEC said, adding that more than 1 lakh booths are covered by cameras. Also, nearly 900 observers have been deployed to keep a watch on the field.
In a key development, the Election Commission of India (ECI) on Saturday extended the ban on physical rallies and roadshows in the five poll-bound states till January 22. The decision was taken by the ECI after separate virtual meetings on the COVID situation with the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Chief Secretaries and Health Secretaries as well as the Chief Electoral Officers of the five poll-bound states, Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh.
In the 2017 Manipur Assembly election, Congress emerged as the single-largest party by winning 28 seats in the 60-member House whereas BJP bagged 21 seats. Even as it harboured hopes of forming a government in the state again, BJP thwarted its plans by forging a post-poll alliance with the National People's Party, the Naga People's Front and LJP. Thus, the saffron party which had drawn a blank in the 2012 polls formed a government in Manipur for the first time with N Biren Singh taking oath as the Chief Minister on March 15, 2017.
The N Biren Singh-led government faced a mid-term crisis on June 17, 2020, when 9 MLAs including the Deputy CM withdrew support to the ruling coalition. However, it barely managed to prove its majority on the floor of the Assembly on August 10 as 8 Congress MLAs stayed away from the Assembly proceedings despite the party issuing a whip to vote against the trust motion moved by the Chief Minister. The government was supported by 28 members including the 4 NPP MLAs on the floor of the Assembly.
In the 2017 Punjab Assembly election, Congress won a whopping 77 seats in the 117-member House, whereas Shiromani Akali Dal could win only 18 seats. On the other hand, AAP emerged as the second-largest party with 20 seats and failed to bear fruit as it could win in only 54 constituencies. Despite winning a huge mandate, infighting erupted in the Congress camp after Sidhu started attacking the then CM Amarinder Singh over the purported delayed justice in the incidents of desecration of the Guru Granth Sahib and the drug cases.
The situation escalated on September 18 after Congress summoned a Legislative Party meeting without keeping the Punjab CM in the loop. Amid growing speculation that Singh will be ousted, the latter tendered his resignation to Punjab Governor Banwarilal Purohit at about 4.30 pm on the same day owing to "humiliation". However, Charanjit Singh Channi pipped Sidhu to the CM's post on September 20. More drama was in store in the poll-bound state as the latter stepped down as the state Congress chief on September 28.
Sidhu took back his resignation only after Channi replaced Amar Preet Singh Deol as the Advocate General of Punjab. The former cricketer had expressed dissatisfaction over Deol's appointment as the latter had appeared for former DGP Sumedh Singh Saini and other accused in the sacrilege cases in the Punjab and Haryana High Court. Even then, the rift between Sidhu and Channi has persisted with the Congress unwilling to name any CM face.
In the 2017 Goa Assembly polls, BJP suffered a big blow in the absence of its stalwart leader Manohar Parrikar as it could win only 13 seats in contrast to Congress whose candidates won in 17 constituencies. However, BJP staked claim to form the government with the support of 3 MGP MLAs, 3 GFP MLAs, two Independents and an NCP MLA under the leadership of Parrikar who resigned as the Defence Minister. After he passed away on 17 March 2019, the then Assembly Speaker Pramod Sawant replaced him.
Deputy CM in the Parrikar Cabinet- Sudin Dhavalikar and Vijai Sardesai were sacked from the Cabinet in the next months. On the other hand, BJP consolidated its position after 10 Congress MLAs including Chandrakant Kavlekar, Atanasio Monserrate, Jeniffer Monserratte, Francis Silveira, Philip Nery Rodrigues, Cleaofacio Dias, Wilfred Dsa, Nilkant Halarnkar and Isidor Fernandes joined the saffron party on 10 July 2019. The spate of defections has increased in the run-up to the 2022 polls with two BJP MLA defecting to TMC and Congress respectively.
In the last few months, TMC has stepped up its election campaign with the party with posters featuring TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee's photo and the slogan 'Gonychi Navi Sakal' (Goa's new dawn) been put across the state. Moreover, it has riled Congress by inducting several of its leaders including ex-CM Luizinho Faleiro. AAP too is wooing the voters with promises such as 300 units of free electricity per month, 24/7 uninterrupted power supply, unemployment allowance and Rs.1000 for every woman aged above 18.
In the 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly election, the Harish Rawat-led Congress government lost power after BJP won 57 seats in the 70-member House. Thereafter, Trivendra Singh Rawat served as the Chief Minister of the state until 9 March, when he resigned because of a "collection decision" taken by the BJP top brass. His successor and Lok Sabha MP Tirath Singh Rawat's tenure as the CM was also short-lived and was replaced by Pushkar Singh Dhami as the Election Commission was unlikely to conduct a by-election owing to the COVID-19 situation.
AAP has tried to make inroads in the state in the last few months with a mass outreach campaign titled 'Uttarakhand me bhi Kejriwal', increasing online presence besides regular visits by high-profile leaders such as Manish Sisodia. However, non-BJP and non-Congress parties have failed to make any gains in Uttarakhand so far which is evident from the failure of Uttarakhand Kranti Dal, SP and BSP. While AAP has declared Colonel (retd.) Ajay Kothiyal as its CM face, Congress is yet to confirm whether Harish Rawat will be projected as its Chief Ministerial candidate.