Manipur govt on the verge of collapse as 9 ruling coalition MLAs withdraw support

In a big jolt to the N Biren Singh-led BJP government in Manipur on Wednesday, three BJP MLAs resigned and 6 other coalition MLAs including the Deputy CM withdrew support. BJP MLAs S Subhashchandra Singh, TT Haokip and Samuel Jendai, TMC MLA T Robindro Singh, National People's Party (NPP) MLAs Y Joykumar Singh (Deputy CM), N. Kayisii, L Jayanta Kumar Singh and Letpao Haokip and Independent MLA Ashab Uddin have extended their support to the Congress party. Moreover, the aforesaid three BJP MLAs officially joined Congress. This latest development implies that the ruling coalition now enjoys the support of only 30 MLAs (including the Speaker) in the 60-member house.

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The numbers game

In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress party emerged as the single largest party with 28 MLAs while BJP managed to win from 21 constituencies. 4 candidates of the NPP and Naga People's Front (NPF) respectively emerged victorious in the election. On the other hand, the LJP, TMC, and an Independent candidate won one seat each. As BJP secured the support of all non-Congress MLAs and one Congress MLA Thounaojam Shyamkumar, Governor Najma Heptulla invited the former to form the government. 

Subsequently, 7 more Congress MLAs- Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh joined the BJP. This propelled the BJP-led ruling coalition's strength to 40. Meanwhile, Congress' disqualification petitions against 8 of its former legislators remained pending with the Assembly Speaker.

However, the situation changed dramatically after the Supreme Court's verdict in the case of T Shyamkumar. Subsequently, on March 28, 2020, the Assembly Speaker disqualified him as an MLA. On June 8, the Manipur High Court restrained 7 Congress MLAs who defected to the BJP namely, Sanasam Bira Singh, Ginsuanhau, Oinam Lukhoi Singh, Ngamthang Haokip, Yengkhom Surchandra Singh, Kshetrimayum Bira Singh, and Paonam Brojen Singh from entering the state Assembly unless their disqualification petitions are disposed of by the Speaker.

Thus, in the eventuality of a floor test taking place, 11 MLAs (7 MLAs have been restrained by the HC, 3 MLAs have resigned and Shyamkumar's seat remains vacant) will not be able to participate in the voting process. In such a scenario, the BJP-led coalition can secure only 22 votes (excluding the Speaker) as compared to the Congress alliance's 26 votes in a 49-member house. This indicates that the BJP government in Manipur faces a tough test of survival. 

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