Winning Karnataka: What it means for BJP, Congress as they gear up for 2024 LS elections

As the polling for the Karnataka assembly elections concluded on Wednesday and exit poll forecasts flashed across television screens, many are wondering whether the results will impact the Lok Sabha elections next year. Here's what Karnataka poll results would mean for the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Lok Sabha 2024: What Karnataka poll results mean for BJP and Congress 

Most of the Exit polls projections predicted a hung House in Karnataka, with the Grand Old Party leading.  If this holds true, the BJP will lose its only southern state, which will hinder its plans to expand its electoral presence beyond Karnataka. 

Regarding Lok Sabha, the southern state sends 28 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament, the second-largest number after Tamil Nadu's 39 in the region. Losing Karnataka will harm the BJP's claim of being a pan-India party, while it will give Congress a much-needed boost as it seeks a resurgence in 2024 after a series of electoral setbacks. According to political analysts and pollsters, winning Karnataka will be crucial in building momentum for Congress ahead of the bigger battle in 2024, providing them with the necessary confidence and conviction to go into the next general election.

The saffron party's state chiefs in Tamil Nadu and Telangana, K Annamalai and Bandi Sanjay, respectively, have been aggressively campaigning against the ruling parties, DMK and BRS, in hopes of winning the next election. Telangana's election is scheduled to take place later this year. However, if the BJP loses in Karnataka, their long-term plan of making deeper inroads in southern India would be disrupted, requiring them to reevaluate their strategy for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

A victory in Karnataka would provide a significant electoral win for Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge, giving the party a fresh boost of energy as they try to overcome the BJP in the next Lok Sabha elections

On the other hand, if the BJP manages to retain the southern state of Karnataka, it will break a 38-year drought of incumbent parties retaining power since 1985. This will be a significant achievement for the BJP, further cementing its status as a pan-India party capable of winning elections in diverse regions.

However, if Congress loses Karnataka, questions about its position as the leading opposition party will inevitably be raised. Other regional parties may be reluctant to accept the Congress as the leader of the opposition against the saffron party in the 2024 elections, given their repeated electoral losses in recent years. This could lead to a significant realignment of political forces in the country, with regional parties taking on a more prominent role in opposition politics.

The outcome of the Karnataka elections will have significant implications for the BJP, Congress, and the broader political landscape of India. While a BJP victory would consolidate their position in southern India, a Congress victory would provide them with a much-needed boost ahead of the 2024 elections, and a loss could lead to a significant shift in opposition politics.