Experts Warn China’s Great Bend Dam Could Threaten Brahmaputra, Trigger Water Crisis in Northeast

Guwahati: International experts raised serious concerns over China’s proposed “Great Bend Dam” on the Yarlung Tsangpo river—known as the Brahmaputra in India—warning that the massive hydropower project could threaten water security, ecological balance, and disaster resilience across the sub-Himalayan region.

At the international seminar titled “Ensuring Water Security, Ecological Integrity, and Disaster Resilience in the Sub-Himalayan Region: The Case of the Brahmaputra,” held in Guwahati on Tuesday, specialists from various countries and disciplines sounded the alarm on the possible downstream consequences of China’s dam-building plans.

The seminar was organised by the leading northeastern think tank Asian Confluence, with participation from policymakers, environmental experts, river basin authorities, engineers, and diplomats from India and neighboring countries.

'Water Bomb, Not a Dam,' Warned Arunachal MP

Lok Sabha MP from Arunachal Pradesh and senior BJP leader Tapir Gao strongly criticised China’s project, saying, “It is not going to be a dam, but a 'water bomb' to be used against India and other lower riparian countries.”

He reminded participants of the June 2000 floods that had devastated Arunachal Pradesh when a sudden release of water from a Chinese dam washed away over ten bridges on the Siang River, which later becomes the Brahmaputra in Assam . Gao supported a counter-measure dam on the Siang in Arunachal to mitigate any future threats posed by sudden water releases from upstream Chinese dams.

China's Plan to Divert Brahmaputra Water

French author and Tibetologist Claude Arpi said that China was not only planning to build a dam in Medong County, near the Great Bend, but also to divert the river’s water to the Yellow River through a complex network of tunnels.

“China wants to become a power giant by building the dam,” said Arpi, cautioning that the scale of the project would have severe environmental and strategic consequences for downstream nations like India and Bangladesh .

India Lacks a Water-Sharing Pact with China

Well-known Asia affairs expert Bertil Lintner highlighted how China’s approach to controlling rivers flowing out of Tibet was part of a broader strategy that began with its invasion of Tibet in the late 1950s.

“China has constructed 11 mega dams only on the Mekong River, which is the lifeline of five other countries,” Lintner said. He emphasized the urgent need for India to establish a water-sharing agreement with China, warning that the absence of such a pact could trigger bilateral conflicts.

Could Brahmaputra Become Water-Deficient?

Chairman of the Brahmaputra Board, Dr. Ranbir Singh, pointed out that the Brahmaputra Basin is the only water-surplus river basin in India, while other river systems are water-deficient.

“With this dam in China, are we looking at a water-deficient Brahmaputra river basin?” Dr. Singh asked, adding that India must adopt a multi-pronged strategy involving diplomatic pressure, scientific research, and international advocacy to counter the risks.

He also held a dialogue with Dr. Truong Hong Tien, Deputy Director General of the Vietnam National Mekong Committee, moderated by former MEA Secretary (East) Ambassador Riva Ganguly Das, to discuss shared experiences from the Mekong region and possible strategic collaborations.

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IIT Guwahati Research Predicts More ‘Dry Days’ Downstream

During a technical session, Prof. Anamika Baruah of IIT Guwahati presented alarming research findings indicating that the downstream of the Tibetan Plateau will experience more dry days, even as the upper plateau sees more wet days due to the dam constructions.

She lamented the lack of collaborative research with China on the issue. Urging the Indian government and scientific community to act, she said, “Let's shape the narrative before it is shaped for us.”

Voices from Across the Region Join Concern

Experts from Nepal and Bhutan also joined the seminar, along with Indian professionals from environmental law, water resource management, governance, policy-making, and engineering. All participants underlined the shared risks posed by China's damming activities in the ecologically fragile and geopolitically sensitive Himalayan region.

Asian Confluence Calls for India-Led Scientific Action

Dr. Sabyasachi Dutta, Director of Asian Confluence, said that India must take the lead in launching scientific studies on the potential impacts of the Great Bend Dam.

“The need of the hour is to have more scientific studies initiated by India, so that the issue is not carried away by simple media narratives,” he said.

He added, “Only such an initiative will help develop solid ground for international support against China’s proposed dam at the Big Bend.”

Dr. Dutta emphasized that the effort aligns with Asian Confluence’s mission to promote actionable solutions for water security in the region. He also recalled that the organisation had earlier hosted the third edition of the international NADI Dialogue in Guwahati to foster cooperation on transboundary rivers.

Why This Matters to India and the Region?

The Brahmaputra is a lifeline for millions in northeast India and Bangladesh.

China’s dam at the Great Bend could alter river flow, impact agriculture, and increase flood risk.

India currently lacks a water-sharing treaty with China on the Brahmaputra.

Experts call for international engagement, scientific research, and policy action to counter this growing threat.

As the situation unfolds, India may need to step up both diplomatic efforts and internal preparedness to protect the ecological and strategic security of the entire Brahmaputra river basin.