IIT Kanpur Study Warns: 6.5+ Magnitude Earthquake Could Devastate Kanpur and Prayagraj Along the Ganga

New Delhi: A major scientific study from IIT Kanpur has sounded the alarm for two of Uttar Pradesh’s largest cities, warning that a powerful earthquake of 6.5 magnitude or higher could cause severe destruction. The research, led by Professor Nihar Ranjan Patra, points to the unique vulnerability of Ganga riverfront areas and low-lying neighbourhoods, where loose, sandy soil could amplify tremors and trigger catastrophic ground failures.

Ground Beneath the Cities: A Hidden Threat

The 17 years old research study reveals that much of the soil in Kanpur and Prayagraj is unstable and sandy, which shakes more violently during seismic activity. This increases the intensity of tremors and raises the risk of structural damage. Particularly concerning is the phenomenon of liquefaction where solid ground temporarily behaves like quicksand under strong shaking. In such conditions, building foundations can weaken, roads may crack open, and older structures could collapse.

A Research Project Years in the Making

Professor Patra first received the project in 2008. Over the years, his team conducted extensive surveys, collected soil samples from around 20 locations, and analyzed them using computer models. The simulations showed which parts of the cities would be most affected if a major earthquake struck. The findings consistently pointed to riverbank zones, older neighborhoods, and densely populated areas as high-risk regions.

Potential Impact of a Major Quake

If a 6.5+ magnitude earthquake were to hit, the consequences could be severe:

- Roads splitting and ground fissures appearing across vulnerable zones.

- Foundations of large buildings weakening, leading to tilting or collapse.

- Older housing stock crumbling, especially in crowded neighborhoods.

- Critical infrastructure at risk, including schools, hospitals, and government offices.

 Preparing Before Disaster Strikes

Experts stress that the warning must not be ignored. Recommendations include:

- Strict adherence to earthquake-resistant design in all new construction.

- Retrofitting and strengthening of existing buildings, especially public institutions.

- Public awareness campaigns to educate residents on earthquake safety measures.

- Stronger disaster management systems to ensure rapid relief and rescue operations.

The IIT Kanpur study is not just an academic exercise, it is a serious warning. With urban populations growing and infrastructure expanding, the risk of a devastating earthquake looms large. Scientists emphasise that the time to prepare is now. Reinforcing vulnerable structures, planning emergency responses, and spreading awareness could significantly reduce the impact of a future quake. For Kanpur and Prayagraj, the danger lies beneath their feet. The question is not whether an earthquake will strike, but whether the cities will be ready when it does.

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