Kolkata: A low-pressure system is likely to form over the Southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22, predicted the India Meteorological Department (IMD). It added that the system may move northeastwards initially and intensify into a depression over the central Bay of Bengal by approximately May 24. 

In a similar forecast, private weather bureau Skymet predicted that a low-pressure area will be developed over Southwest Bay of Bengal within next 2-3 days and it's likely to move northeastward and strengthen into a depression or deep depression. 

“A low-pressure system is going to develop in the south Bay of Bengal during 22–23 May. Will it evolve as #CycloneRemal moving to the east coast? Ocean and atmospheric conditions are favourable in south Bay, with 2–3°C warmer sea surface temperatures and a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) reaching there,” Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology wrote on X on Sunday.

He added that sea suraface temperature in the south Bay of Bengal has been recorded 2-3 degree Celsius warmer than normal for a long time, providing constant supply of heat and moisture which is essential for formation of a cyclone. 

First Pre-Monsoon Cyclone

The cyclone, if formed, will become the first pre-monsoon cyclone of 2024 as the IMD has predicted that monsoon will make onset over Kerala around May 31. 

The Met department further warned of heavy rainfall at many places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places very likely over Gangetic West Bengal and North Odisha on May 24 and 25. 

The wind speed of 40 to 60 kmph is anticipated over Central Bay of Bengal from May 23 morning. It may spread to North Bay of Bengal regions from May 24 with increased wind speed of 70 kmph. 

According to the weather bureau, sea conditions will be rough over central Bay of Bengal from May 23 and over North Bay of Bengal from May 24 onwards.